Last season Craven Cottage was home to one of the best Championship sides in recent memory as Fulham topped the table playing stylish football, attacking with a devastating combination of pace and precision that yielded 106 league goals. 43 of those goals were scored by the talismanic Aleksandar Mitrović – a Championship record and a staggering personal feat that will live long in the memories of those lucky enough to witness it. The Cottagers put seven goals past an opponent on three separate occasions and scored six in a game twice. Simply put, they were really, really fun.
But over the last few months some of that fun has faded. The club has been slow to act in the transfer market which, along with the loss of key contributors Fabio Carvalho, Jean Michaël Seri, and Neco Williams, has left them with a worryingly thin squad. Added to that is discontent with the club’s eye-watering ticket prices for the season opener against Liverpool (adult tickets range from £65-£100). On the pitch, the target is simple: Survive and end the cycle of yo-yoing that Fulham have been stuck in. Success will depend on whether that magic from last year can be rediscovered or if the squad just isn’t deep enough to keep their heads above water.
Signing of the Summer – João Palhinha
Whilst so far Fulham may have struggled to bring in the number of players needed to fill the gaps in their squad, the quality of their acquisitions should excite fans. Andreas Pereira and Manor Solomon and Kevin Mbabu represent good value, low-risk signings, with the latter being a particularly promising player. But Portuguese defensive midfielder João Palhinha undoubtedly represents the biggest coup for the newly promoted side.
Fulham beat Wolves to the £17 million capture of Palhinha, with the player reportedly persuaded by manager Marco Silva to leave Sporting Lisbon for West London. On paper, Palhinha should take the departed Seri’s number six role in the Fulham lineup, though they are very different players and Fulham may tweak their system on their return to the Premier League. Seri was a skilled passer who suited a ball-dominant Fulham side in the Championship but Palhinha should be far better placed to aid their transition to the top tier, where they are unlikely to be able to control possession to the same degree.
Palhinha is a bona fide midfield destroyer. His attacking output is limited (completing just 2.20 progressive passes and 1.86 progressive dribbles per 90), but he excels defensively. His 32.42 defensive pressures per 90 puts him in the top 1% of all midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues, which should give him great success recovering the ball in a fast-paced Fulham team. He is also an excellent tackler (3.04 tackles per 90) and registers 2.20 blocks per 90. Crucially, he is also good in the air, winning 1.69 aerials per 90. This would allow Fulham to transition from a three-man midfield to a double pivot of Palhinha and Harrison Reed with Pereira as a 10 in front of them, if Silva is so inclined. Palhinha’s aerial ability makes this a possibility as playing Reed as a lone six would leave Fulham vulnerable to long balls. The two of them together in a double pivot would free Reed to “buzz” around the midfield, safe in the knowledge that Palhinha will ensure that Fulham retain defensive solidity.
Key Player – Aleksandar Mitrović
Mitrović scored 43 goals in 44 games last year. To an extent, that’s all you need to know. His goals scored per 90 was actually more than 1-a-game, coming in at 1.01 when you factor in the minutes he lost to being substituted off. It was a brilliant season, one where Fulham fans came to the Cottage in the expectation that he would score every game, and the numbers backed that expectation up.
At 6’2” tall and with an imposing and aggressive on-field manner, you’d be forgiven for pigeonholing Mitrović into the stereotypical “target man” mould. But under Silva last season, the Serb blossomed into an all-round forward. He frequently dropped deep to play his pacier teammates in down the flanks and contributed seven assists over the course of the season.
The narrative around Mitrović has been that he may have just “found his level” in the Championship, having seen limited opportunities under Rafa Benítez in his time in the Premier League with Newcastle and failing to impress in his last two top-flight seasons with Fulham. However, Mitrović did score 11 goals in the 2018-19 Premier League season, from an xG of 15.45 and in each of his four Premier League campaigns to date, Mitrović has underperformed his xG. Last season, in contrast, his 43 goals came from an xG of 35.78. Whilst this overperformance is unlikely to be replicated in 2022-23, it could also indicate a player who has simply improved his finishing. 35.78 xG over the course of a season is also a ridiculously high figure in itself which evidences Fulham’s attacking prowess last year but also shows a striker who is adept at getting into the right positions to score. Assuming Fulham can cope with the transition to Premier League football as a team, a 10-15 goal season is definitely possible for Mitrović.
FPL Asset – Harry Wilson
This one is tricky as Fulham’s FPL prices seem pretty fair for the most part. Whilst you won’t find many bargains here, a player who may go under-the-radar for FPL managers unfamiliar with the Championship is Harry Wilson. Priced at £6m and listed as a midfielder, Wilson often lines up as part of Fulham’s front three and the Welshman was extremely productive last season. Scoring 10 goals and providing a Championship-leading 19 assists, Wilson was duly named a finalist for the Championship Player of the Year Award alongside Mitrović.
Wilson is a good bet to continue this production in the Premier League. He actually underperformed his xG (12.01) last season, and although his assist total was highly inflated compared to his xA (12.39) there are other metrics that suggest Wilson will continue to be an attacking force. Most notably, with 3.85 touches in the opposition box per 90 last season, Wilson ranked in the top 5% of all players in the Championship including strikers. Wilson is an FPL midfielder who routinely pops up in areas where he can put up big numbers and last season he delivered spectacularly.
Expected Eleven
Fulham’s new acquisitions would make most sense in a 4231 shape. Palhinha spent last season playing in a two-man midfield at Sporting Lisbon and Pereira is most comfortable as a number 10; he and Solomon will be tasked with filling the attacking hole left by Carvalho’s departure for Liverpool. It’s in defence that Fulham badly need more bodies. Tosin Adarabioyo, Tim Ream and Terence Kongolo are currently the only senior central defenders on the club’s books, and Kongolo has been training with the under-23s.
There’s still work to do in West London but the quality of some of those new faces should inspire hope that this might finally be the year that Fulham can reestablish themselves in the top flight.
