As the 2022-23 Premier League season draws closer, debate continues to rage over what the primary shape and system will be at West Ham next season. With the club still chasing a left wing-back – Burnley’s Maxwel Cornet has emerged as a possible option as a deal for Filip Kostić has stalled – and with Vladimír Coufal speaking after the draw with Lens about his role on the right hand side as a wing-back, it seems likely that West Ham will utilise a back three more regularly next season.
Mark Warburton replaced the outgoing Stuart Pearce on the coaching staff this summer and the ex-QPR manager has often preferred to use a 3421 or 352 – it was certainly his main shape in 2022 where he only deployed a four-at-the-back with Rangers four times. On those four occasions, the shape that Warburton went to was a 442, somewhat of a novelty at West Ham of late given the fact that Antonio has been the only real option up-front since Haller’s departure in January 2021.
But 442 could be back on the cards in East London with the arrival of Gianluca Scamacca. And that may be a solution to the stagnation we saw at the back end of last season as West Ham struggled to get high levels of productivity out of any of the players deployed behind the striker in David Moyes’ 4231.
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Manuel Lanzini emerged as a key part of the team again on the back of an excellent run of form at the turn of the year where he scored twice in an away win over Crystal Palace and starred in West Ham’s 4-1 win over Watford. The Argentine also went on to play a key role in the Hammers’ Europa League Round of 16 triumph over Sevilla as he raced back to save the day with a last-ditch tackle on ex-Wolves striker Rafa Mir in the 97th minute.
As the first-choice option shifted from Saïd Benrahma to Lanzini, West Ham’s style changed. Moyes’ side became more ‘possession-comfortable’* with the Argentine in the team – perhaps unsurprising given Lanzini’s 90.6% pass completion rate, a figure almost unmatched by other attacking midfielders and wingers in the Premier League and well above Benrahma’s 75.2% success rate. Lanzini brought with him an assuredness in possession that West Ham had previously lacked, and the Hammers’ average share of possession increased by 2% in games Lanzini was selected to start.
*A term we’ve coined in lieu of possession-dominant as, with or without Lanzini, West Ham’s average share of possession never ticked above 50%.
Conversely, West Ham’s shots decreased by 1.5 per 90 with Lanzini in the starting lineup as the Argentine’s lack of goal threat became sorely apparent. His double over Palace proved to be anomalous as he took just 0.66 shots per 90, 1.96 less than Benrahma, and created a meagre 0.17 npxG+xA per match, half that of Benrahma’s 0.34 per 90. The two players are entirely different, one a possession retainer that will drop deeper in the team to start moves, and the other a risk taker that might create something in the final third. They represented two distinct stylistic choices for West Ham and in the end, Lanzini’s reliability won out as Moyes opted for a slightly less chaotic brand of football.
Although West Ham executed better control of games with Lanzini in the hole, that lack of goal threat from midfield became a debilitating issue as Michail Antonio’s goal returns dwindled and the sheer number of games caught up with the thin squad. Where Jesse Lingard had re-energised the group in the season prior with his infectious enthusiasm and 14 goal contributions, there would be no such spark to spring Moyes’ side to life as the season drew to a close this time around. And come the end of the season, it was clear that attacking midfield would be a key area for recruitment in the summer despite West Ham having four players capable of playing there. Pablo Fornals and Lanzini are a little too similar in their lack of goal threat, Nikola Vlasić hasn’t performed to expectation and Benrahma has struggled to win the manager’s trust due to persistent defensive issues and failures to retain possession. It was clear that West Ham needed a different profile in there – a player who could provide a genuine goal threat alongside reliability in possession and diligent work off the ball.
It was unsurprising then that Lingard was reidentified as a top target once again. But the chase to resecure his services on a free transfer, after the culmination of his Manchester United contract, went on for far too long and ultimately ended in defeat as Nottingham Forest stole the deal at the last minute.
Perhaps at this point David Moyes should consider what might happen if he were to abandon the number ten role altogether… Fornals has performed well from the left in a 4231 while often performing a similar function to that of a number ten and fans have at times bemoaned the usage of the Spaniard in combination with Lanzini. Given that the 4231 largely shifts into a 442 defensive shape anyway, it wouldn’t be a huge leap to adjust to a more permanent 442. And with Scamacca now at the club, this is an intriguing possibility.
The Italian prefers to drop deep and away from the opposition centre-backs to lay the ball off to a teammate before spinning and attempting to get into the box. This makes him a perfect candidate for that deeper role in a front two. Scamacca combined well with Giacomo Raspadori and Domenico Berardi last season at Sassuolo as Berardi drifted inside to pick up Scamacca’s knock-downs and Raspadori advanced through the centre into the space in behind. On paper, his qualities could combine just as well with Jarrod Bowen, Fornals and Antonio as Bowen and Antonio maintain the threat in behind and open up those pockets of space between the defence and midfield for Scamacca to link-up with Fornals.
Given Fornals’ comfortability in various positions across the midfield, this system could easily line-up in several different shapes. A 4231 with Fornals in the hole and Antonio on the left could perform the same function as a 442 with Fornals nominally on the left or a 433 with Fornals the most advanced of a midfield trio also containing Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček.
Lastly, there has been news today that West Ham have had a bid accepted for Lille midfielder Amadou Onana. The Belgian impressed last season in a box-to-box capacity in Jocelyn Gourvennec’s 442-double-six system. Often lining up alongside Benjamin André, the midfield unit would be tasked with applying relentless and intense pressure to recapture possession and transition the ball forward quickly. With Renato Sanches sometimes used as the ball-progressing machine on the left side of the midfield it is clear to see how West Ham have the necessary profiles to produce a similar approach. And a midfield unit of Fornals, Rice, Onana and Bowen would be one of the more exciting groups in the league.
