It might seem odd, after a season opener in which Newcastle’s outclassed opposition had no shots on target, to focus on the man charged with keeping those hypothetical shots out. But Eddie Howe’s choice between newly-signed Nick Pope and long-time starter Martin Dúbravka was one of the biggest uncertainties facing Toon fans prior to the season. That mystery was solved at 2pm on Saturday when Howe revealed his team, Pope would start despite Dúbravka retaining the number one shirt. The two players had only learned the news themselves 24 hours prior.
Given Howe’s general reluctance to immediately involve his new signings (Sven Botman started on the bench, just as Bruno Guimarães did during his first couple of months on Tyneside) this feels significant. Pope getting the nod sets him up as the de facto number one for the season but Howe described the decision as “Very, very difficult”.
“Certainly, my decision to pick Nick wasn’t a reflection on him (Dúbravka), or his abilities, or my thoughts on him,” Howe stated in his post-match comments, “It’s more a reflection on Nick – and how good I think he is.”
So just how good is Nick Pope? And how do he and Dúbravka compare?
Analysing Nick Pope
Goalkeepers are hard to analyse. They’re completely different to every other player on the pitch and that means we need different statistics to analyse them. In ice hockey, where goalies are indisputably the most important players to a team’s success, emphasis is placed on two stats in particular: average goals against and overall save percentage. The former works well in ice hockey where there tends to be more parity between teams, but for football it’s less useful. Pope was middle-of-the-road last season with an average of 1.27 goals conceded per 90, but this doesn’t account for the leaky Burnley defence he was playing behind. Defending is a team effort, so average goals against should really be treated as a team stat.
In terms of overall save percentage, Pope fares much better. He saved 73.6% of the on-target shots he faced last season, putting him in the top 20% of goalkeepers in Europe. But it’s in more advanced statistics that he really excels.
When analysing outfielders, most football fans are comfortable with using expected goals (xG) as a helpful metric. But for goalkeepers, post-shot expected goals (PSxG) gives a more accurate picture. The difference is that PSxG measures everything after the shot has been taken. This means it accounts for the quality of the shot. Where a scuffed shot from the penalty spot would have the same xG as one taken from the same location and headed straight for the top corner, their PSxG would be very different.
This means we can use PSxG minus goals against to estimate how many goals a goalkeeper keeps out on their own (as opposed to the average goalkeeper) over the course of a season. This is very similar to the pioneering baseball stat “wins above replacement” (any Moneyball fans out there?) For Nick Pope last season, that number was +0.12 per 90 minutes. Over the course of the season, that’s 4.56 goals that Burnley didn’t concede directly because of Nick Pope, again putting him in the top 20% of Europe’s goalkeepers.
Analysing Martin Dúbravka
In terms of these advanced shot-stopping statistics Dúbravka and Pope are actually very similar, though the cruder metrics tell a different story. Dúbravka’s average goals against was 1.35 per 90, surprisingly slightly worse than Pope’s given Burnley and Newcastle’s respective league finishes. And Dúbravka’s save percentage was also relatively poor at 67.9%, putting him in the bottom half of goalkeepers in Europe’s top five leagues. But as we’ve already discussed, this doesn’t tell the whole story.
In terms of PSxG-GA, Dúbravka actually outperforms Pope, coming in at +0.16 per 90, or just over six more goals prevented than the average goalkeeper over the course of a full season. This is very impressive and places the Slovakian international just outside the top 10% of Europe’s goalkeepers. Nonetheless, save percentage aside, in terms of pure shot-stopping ability Newcastle’s two goalkeepers seem relatively similar.
Contrasting styles
Whilst their ability to keep the ball out of the net might be similar, Pope and Dúbravka are stylistically very different players and this is perhaps the biggest reason Eddie Howe opted for the former against Nottingham Forest, as he attempts to evolve Newcastle United and mould them in his image. Howe highlighted one of the biggest contrasts between the two in his praise of Pope post-match. “I thought he was excellent with his ability to come for high crosses… I thought he commanded his box really well… So I was really pleased.”
Howe’s praise is merited because Pope excels aerially. He stopped 9.7% of the crosses he faced last year, compared to Dúbravka’s 8.1%. This difference might seem small but moving to Pope amounts to an upgrade for Newcastle of 24 percentiles amongst goalkeepers in Europe’s top five leagues.
Pope also fits the “sweeper keeper” mould far better than Dúbravka if that’s a part of Eddie Howe’s tactical vision moving forward. This is the area where the contrast between Pope and Dúbravka is most stark. Pope had 1.73 defensive actions outside the penalty area per 90 for Burnley last season, placing him in the top 1% of goalkeepers in Europe. And in contrast, Dúbravka’s 0.35 put him in the bottom 11%. In simple terms, whilst Dúbravka prefers to remain on or near his goalline, Pope is much more comfortable pushing out and covering his defenders. This opens up some intriguing tactical possibilities for Newcastle as playing Pope would enable them to transition to playing a higher defensive line, something they didn’t do even once Howe had taken over last season.
Overall, whilst Pope and Dúbravka’s shot-stopping abilities are similar, the selection of Pope is justified due to his superior ability to deal with crosses and the fact that he offers Newcastle greater tactical flexibility. Make no mistake though, Newcastle now have two high quality goalkeepers with Dúbravka set to be one of the best backups in the entire division.
