Talent identification and development will always be an integral part of football. For clubs “lucky” enough to have access to a state’s cash reserves or the profits of a wealthy oil baron, harvesting talented players is a relatively easy task, you just sign the best players in the best leagues and hope for the best. Of course, such an approach to squad building is not always a success, but for those clubs that are less cash-rich, it ceases to even be an option. Instead, clubs that are striving for long-term, sustainable success are required to shop smart in an increasingly expensive global market.
The “Red Bull Model” is often lauded as the paragon of smart recruitment, and rightly so given their exemplary record of unearthing gems from underrated leagues before selling them on for a healthy profit. In the last four seasons alone, Red Bull Salzburg have made a profit of £113m from the sales of just six players, and this conveyor belt of talent is showing no signs of stopping. Unfortunately, for clubs based in the United Kingdom, Brexit has made it incredibly difficult to sign young prospects from Europe, prompting English clubs to turn their attention to regions that the U.K.’s new points-based system favours, like South America. We have already seen Brighton explore this market, most recently in Paraguay with Libertad’s promising young striker, Julio Enciso, but also with Moisés Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister who have both hit the ground running in 2022-23.
This series, prompted by the benefits involved in mid-level Premier League clubs recruiting undervalued non-E.U. players, will use data to highlight some of the continent’s most exciting talents who look ready to take the next step toward stardom. In Issue #1 we highlighted Carlos Alcaraz, Alan Varela, Artur, and Vicente Pizarro as future stars, and if you read on you’ll be presented with another four talented youngsters, including a few goalscorers and a promising young right-back. Roll call, please…
Exequiel Zeballos (20), Boca Juniors
We’re kicking off part two of this six-part series with one of my favourite young players in South America, Boca Juniors’ exciting 20-year-old winger, Exequiel Zeballos. After a series of promising cameos in 2021, when he recorded his first goal and assist for the club, El Changuito (“Little Monkey”) really hit the ground running this year. With seven goals and three assists to his name, 0.49 goal contributions per 90, Zeballos had established himself as a starter in Hugo Ibarra’s side by the midpoint of 2022, piquing the interest of Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Manchester City in the process. This form started to wane shortly after scoring a brace in a 5-3 victory over Tigre in June, before coming to a grinding halt in August after he sustained a serious injury that will see him sidelined until 2023. Despite this injury, the Argentinian winger will no doubt remain on the radar of Europe’s top clubs throughout his recovery, and for good reason too, as Zeballos looks destined for stardom.
Zeballos’ greatest strength is undoubtedly his ability with the ball at his feet, possessing a deft touch, low centre of gravity, and impressive turn of pace that allows him to dance past any defender that has the unfortunate task of stopping him. Perhaps this is why Milton Leyendeker took to kicking him instead, a tackle that he only received a yellow card for. You only have to watch Zeballos once before the data starts to make sense, as it really is no surprise that he ranks in the top 5% amongst attacking midfielders and wingers in Argentina for progressive runs (3.9) and dribble attempts (9.8) per 90, as well as dribble success (63.7%). To put those numbers into context, there are only seven wingers in Europe’s top five leagues who have attempted more dribbles per 90 in the last calendar year – Jeremie Boga (9.9), Ousmane Dembélé (10.1), Rafael Leão (10.4), Vinícius Júnior (10.6), Allan Saint-Maximin (11), Adama Traoré (11.7), and Kamaldeen Sulemana (12.6). And, of these seven, elite wingers, only two of them boast a superior dribbling success rate – Dembélé (64.7%) and Traoré (73.1%).
What makes Zeballos an even more exciting prospect than a few of the players listed above, is that once he has used his ball-carrying ability to progress into the final third, he is also exceptionally gifted at finishing the move. One of the most noticeable things when watching Zeballos, aside from his dribbling, is his ability to fashion a shooting opportunity out of seemingly nothing, another by-product of his low centre of gravity. He’s at his best when drifting in from the left wing and shooting on his preferred right foot, but his ability to score with both feet is another real strength, as it makes him incredibly unpredictable when bearing down on goal and allows him to wreak havoc from either flank. Testament to the threat that he poses in front of goal are his shooting metrics, with Zeballos firing off 2.7 shots and amassing an expected goal return of 0.32 per 90, putting him in the 96th and 98th percentile. And, as if that isn’t enough, he’s an equally capable provider, averaging 1.3 shot assists (72nd percentile) and 0.9 key passes (96th percentile) per 90 with an expected assist return of 0.17 (80th percentile). Interestingly, Zeballos doesn’t even make the top 40% for the number of passes to the penalty area he attempts (2.9) per 90, which, when read in conjunction with his impressive creative metrics, just speaks to the quality of the chances he creates.
Sure, there will be concerns about how he recovers and if he is to come to Europe then, depending on which league he lands in, he might need to bulk up. At 5’7” he is certainly on the slighter side but he more than makes up for this with his tenacity. Boca Juniors were smart enough to tie him into a contract until 2025, so anyone interested in his services will either have to pay up or wait, the latter of which might not be a bad option for his development either.
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