There is no point hiding from it, Southampton are in real trouble. Following Boxing Day’s dismal 3-1 home defeat at the hands of Brighton and Hove Albion, the Saints find themselves bottom of the league with just one game left in 2022.
This January is absolutely vital to the club’s hopes of staying in the Premier League. This is for two reasons: the run of favourable fixtures and the transfer window. After an uninspiring victory over League One Lincoln City in the first game post-Wold Cup, the manner of the defeat at the hands of Brighton was a real blow.
After six weeks with his new players, and given the fact that it was the first home league game of Jones’ tenure, it was reasonable for Saints fans to have expected so much more from their side. Jones’ side were incredibly lacklustre and the gulf in quality between the two sides was on display to a worrying extent. Regardless of play-styles, 33.6% possession at home in a new manager’s first home game is at best concerning and at worst embarrassing. The lack of pressing, fight and identity left fans scratching their heads at just what the new coaching team have been doing with this group of players for the past one-and-a-half months. Brighton are a very good side – and should be admired for what they have built over the last couple of seasons – but this is not Manchester City we are talking about.
There are a long list of issues for Jones to address, of that there is not doubt. He is not alone in having his work cut out to bail out this sinking ship, though. Southampton’s owners, Sports Republic, do not have endless amounts of money; but they can certainly help with some additions in key areas.
The club’s hierarchy could look to recall Nathan Tella early from his season-long loan spell at Burnley in order to save money but also help Southampton’s misfiring attack. This is a decision that should not be taken lightly however, given the impressive form that Tella has been in this season. At 23, this season at Turf Moor has been huge for Tella’s development and was seen as something of a make or break move. It is only worth recalling Tella if Jones will use him and it is vital that Southampton’s owners discuss this with their manager. Tella is flourishing at a Burnley side that look destined for a return to the Premier League at the first attempt and Tella’s influence on that should not be understated. To recall him when he is doing so well only to not utilise him would not be a decision that would go down well – with Tella or with Burnley.
Southampton insert recall clauses on all of their loanees to ensure that, if they do not feel their player is getting opportunities or developing as they should, the loan can be cut short and they can return to their parent club. Given how difficult the January transfer market can be to find value and players who can come in and make an immediate impact, recalling a player who will be familiar with his surroundings and should be brimming with confidence may not be a bad idea. If Southampton were to do this, what could Tella bring to the struggling side?
The first and most obvious thing is goals. Tella has eight league goals in 21 games this season and an assist too. Whilst it should be noted that the 23-year-old is playing in a side who are top of the table in a league below and create a lot of chances, this is still four league goals more than Southampton’s top scorer Che Adams, who is on four.
Whilst not quantifiable, the impact of confidence – or lack of – is a very real factor in football. Off the back of another goal in Burnley’s latest win, Tella has it in abundance. The confidence of the players currently at Southampton seems as though it could hardly sink any lower. Tella is a player who plays with his heart on his sleeve and excites with his speed of dribbling, desire to beat his man, and the risks that he is willing to take in the final third. After scoring one Premier League goal in his 33 career appearances to date, this season’s haul of 9 G/A so far evidences a real improvement in attacking contributions. His talent was clear at Southampton but he had a tendency to snatch at chances or let himself down with his final ball. With his new-found confidence and eye for goal, his composure in decisive moments should be much improved should he return to the top flight.
To see the impact any potential return of Tella to his parent club this January could have, it makes sense to compare his statistics for this season to Southampton’s most effective attacking player in Adams. Again, it should be noted that Tella is playing for one of the best teams in an inferior league, but there is still merit to this comparison.
Firstly, Tella’s eight goals mean that he is scoring at a rate of 0.52 goals per 90 minutes, which puts him in the 92nd percentile for midfielders in the Championship. The percentiles associated with this may be somewhat skewed as Tella tends to operate on the left of a front three, so should perhaps be considered an attacker more so than a midfielder. However, Tella’s xG per 90 minutes in this period is 0.36, meaning that he has outperformed his xG by over 2.5 goals. Compare this to Adams who is scoring at a rate of 0.31 goals per game with an xG of 0.21 goals per 90 and you can see that the Scotland International is only very marginally outperforming his xG; with his actual total of four goals above his expected total of 3.31. To put Tella’s numbers into more context, his 0.36 xG per 90 this season is well above his xG for Southampton last season which was just 0.04 per 90.
Interestingly, Tella and Adams have both taken 26 shots in their respective leagues this season; albeit Adams has done so in fewer games. This means that it works out as Tella taking 1.72 shots per 90 and Adams taking 2.02 – perhaps understandable given that Adams plays as a centre-forward and is usually Southampton’s focal point. The difference in efficiency is key to this comparison. Of his 26 shots, Tella has managed to hit the target 16 times (1.06 per 90) whilst Adams has been on target on 12 occasions (0.93 per 90). This gives Tella a shot accuracy of 61.54% compared to Adams’ 46.15%, meanwhile Tella boasts a shot conversion rate of 26.92% whilst Adams’ is 15.38%; this means that Tella takes 3.71 shots for every goal scored, whereas Adams needs 6.5.
As mentioned previously, Tella loves to get on the ball and run at his fullback. This is evidenced by his 3.25 dribbles per game this season (94th percentile). Of these, the former Arsenal youth product completes 1.06 dribbles per 90 (84th percentile), however the fact that his dribble success rate is 32.65% (39th percentile) shows that Tella could improve on the efficiency of his dribbling and choosing when – and when not – to try and beat his man. That being said, Tella likes to take risks in possession and takes more responsibility to make things happen at his temporary home. It is also worth noting that this low percentile may not be an entirely fair way of assessing Tella’s dribbling success as, being compared to other midfielders, there are central midfielders who generally dribble less and take far less risks when dribbling with the ball and thus their dribble success rate is likely to be higher than a wide player tasked with creating a spark.
Despite there being little evidence of this in the defeat to Brighton, Jones has said that he wants his side to start games fast and press aggressively. With a combination of pace, stamina, and youthful exuberance, Tella could be perfect to initiate the press from the front for Southampton. For the purpose of this review Tella has been compared to Adams, but the pair could well form an practical and effective partnership. Adams is Southampton’s best presser from the front and, with his physicality, could provide the perfect foil for the smaller, more agile, Tella. Hasenhüttl often utilised Tella as a striker rather than out wide and the pair have played upfront together in the Premier League on occasion.
That is not to say this is the only option. It is almost impossible to predict what shape Jones will favour in the next fixtures. The 49-year-old started with a 433 against Brighton, but changed shape a remarkable five times during the game. Jones has said that his coaching staff worked on a number of different shapes over the World Cup break but it cannot instil confidence in players or fans to change tactics so frequently in one game. It shows indecision and a lack of trust in what he has chosen. Tactical flexibility is one thing, but to alter things with such frequency implies a level of panic. That being said, Tella does give Jones options. He has done his best work on the left for Burnley this season, but can also play on the right, as an attacking midfielder, or – as mentioned – a second striker.
The concern – other than cutting short a seemingly crucial loan spell for Tella’s development – is that Championship goals so often do not translate to Premier League goals. Just look at Adam Armstrong for evidence of that. Should he be recalled, Tella cannot be expected to instantly turn Southampton’s fortunes and a striker who can hit the ground running is still vital in the January transfer window. Tella should not be considered the solution to Southampton’s dysfunctional attack on his own, but he could certainly help the cause.
Tella has affectionately been referred to as Southampton’s ‘Starboy’ on multiple occasions without the objective returns associated with such a nickname. Perhaps now is his time to shine.
