Prior to the FA Cup win against Crystal Palace and the remarkable 2-0 victory over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup quarter-final, Nathan Jones had lost four of his five games as Southampton manager. The one time his side avoided defeat in that period was a win again League One Lincoln City. However, despite these positive results in the cup competitions, the dismal performance against Nottingham Forest in the last league game is still highly concerning.
A lot of this stems from the fact that the Southampton faithful have seen no real style of play since Jones took charge almost two months ago. A new manager always needs a few games to implement their philosophy and for the players to understand what their new boss wants, the problem being that it seems as though Jones has not really been sure himself just what that is.
The constant changes in formation have done little to reassure fans that the club appointed the right manager to replace Ralph Hasenhüttl. In his second league game in charge, a 3-1 defeat at home to Brighton, Jones changed formation a remarkable five times during the game. This, despite effectively having a mid-season pre-season due to the World Cup break. Jones himself has stressed that his new players worked on a number of systems during that time and that they should be flexible in their shape. There is nothing wrong with being able to adapt in-game or be fluid in shape – Brighton are a perfect example of this – the problem is that teams who do this successfully have clear principles regardless of how they set up. Southampton do not.
The crucial proverbial relegation six-pointer at home to Nottingham Forest in the Saints’ last league game is the perfect microcosm of Jones’ short period in charge so far. This was a crucial game and, with all due respect to Forest, a game that Southampton would have identified as must-win if they are to remain a Premier League club next season. Ultimately, they lost 1-0 due to a huge defensive mistake from Lyanco; his second in as many games following the concession of a penalty following his awful attempted header back to his goalkeeper against Fulham the weekend before.
In the wake of that Forest game there were calls for the Jones to be sacked. This may seem harsh given the few games that he has overseen, but there had been little cause for optimism with the side arguably performing worse than they were prior to Hasenhüttl’s sacking. Chants of “you don’t know what you’re doing” rung around St Mary’s in that toxic game against Forest and the divide between fans and club was perhaps the worst it has been in over a decade.
Jones has frequently said in press conferences that he wants his Southampton side to be aggressive and direct. This sounds promising, but all that this translated to in the dogfight against Forest was aimless long balls.
In fact, in that fixture Southampton played a total of 67 long balls. It was a clear tactic that, when Lyanco had the ball in the centre of the back three in the 3142 shape, he would look for a long diagonal to Romain Perraud who was surging down the left from his left wing-back role. There were two key issues here. The first was that Lyanco and his fellow defenders got this pass wrong all too often, with the ball either falling short or being overhit into touch. The second was that Forest right-back Serge Aurier is far superior to Perraud aerially, so he dealt with the majority of these aerial balls with ease.
The frequency at which this pass was attempted means that it was undoubtedly a tactic and was something that Southampton’s backline had been instructed to do. The question is why. Perraud is a decent attacking full-back, but is aerially weak; winning 0.76 aerials duals per 90 minutes. Even on the rare occasion that he was found successfully, the French full-back was incredibly isolated. To get a cross into the box or create a chance he would have to do something special without the assistance of a winger to create an overload and provide some much-needed space in which to operate.
If Jones’ idea of direct, aggressive football is lumping the ball up to a striker or diagonal balls to his wing-backs then he does not have the profile of player to play this way. One of Che Adams’ greatest strengths is his hold-up play and his ability to get his body in-between man and ball. He is also better aerially than his 5 foot 10 frame would suggest, being in the 74th percentile for aerial duals won when compared with other strikers. However, the Scotland international was fighting a losing battle aerially from minute one when up against Willy Boly and Joe Worrall.
It was clear that this tactic was not working and merely played into Forest’s hands, especially once they had gone 1-0 up. Steve Cooper’s side were, understandably, more than happy to sit deep and mop up their opponents’ directionless attempts to penetrate their backline. Shamefully, Jones’ side did not muster a single attempt on target despite having 62.5% possession and making 185 more passes than Forest, as well as having six corners and totalling 24 crosses in the match.
The key difference between the consecutive cup victories and the league fixtures- other than the pressure that a relegation battle brings – is that away at Palace and at home to the Champions Southampton were not expected to take the initiative. Southampton were incredible in the City game, but the expectation was so different to a week earlier in the league. In the second half against Forest, when Southampton were trailing and desperately needed to ask questions, they looked lost. The long-ball approach they had been tasked with applying was failing and there did not seem to be an alternative plan in place. As full-time drew ever closer and fans pleaded with their side to inject some life into the game and sustain attacks, all they got was a disturbing lack of urgency. The absence of any coherent patterns of play was alarming, but the lack of desire to get something from the game was unforgivable.
If things are to improve in the league then Southampton simply have to find a way to play through the thirds. They do not have the profile of player to play long-ball football, but they can be direct in other ways. This was demonstrated perfectly against Manchester City, where Jones went for the pace of Moussa Djenepo and Adam Armstrong out wide in a 4231 shape with great success. Against the likes of Forest and next opponents, Everton, there will not be so much space to exploit on the counter. Therefore, it is essential Southampton find another way of getting from back to front.
The player who is key to this is Romeo Lavia. The 19-year-old returned to the starting line-up against Forest but was understandably a little off the pace. His performance against City gave every indication that he has quickly got back to the player who commanded a £50 million bid following a masterful performance against Chelsea early in the season. Against Forest, Southampton often played short from goal-kicks to one of their three central defenders. It was from this point that the problems presented themselves.
The central defenders would lower the tempo of the game and try and draw the Forest press. However, the press didn’t come and this made things difficult. Instead of pressing, Morgan Gibbs-White – playing as the false nine – would make sure he was constantly screening any pass into Lavia’s feet at the base of Southampton’s midfield. This effectively prevented Southampton being able to play into midfield and build through the middle of the pitch. Perhaps it was not intended that the diagonal ball to either wing-back would be quite such a feature of Southampton’s play, but Cooper’s clever tactical role for Gibbs-White meant that there was little alternative in order for Southampton to get the ball up the pitch.
With central defenders low on confidence and not the best in possession, alongside the turgid St Mary’s atmosphere that night, it is understandable that they did not want to attempt a riskier pass into the midfield to either of the players occupying the number eight roles. For them it felt as though the only option was either to play the ball to each other – not progressing the ball – playing into Lavia, or hitting the wing-backs. With the Lavia option taken out of the equation by Gibbs-White’s positioning, the wing-backs were the only real target.
The City game has given Jones some good problems to have, but has also given some potential solutions. By playing a 4231, Southampton had a double-pivot of Lavia and Ibrahima Diallo anchoring the midfield. If Jones opts for this formation against Everton, this would mean that even if passes into one of this pair are screened, the other will be available. Alternatively, if Everton decide to really try to stifle the pass into this pair then this will leave space elsewhere to exploit. Space that never appeared against Forest.
The way the Saints set-up against City also saw James Ward-Prowse operate in an attacking midfield role. We have seen this before this season, with the Southampton captain also playing this position against Chelsea in a 2-1 victory. It is a position that allows Ward-Prowse to get involved more in areas where he can use his delivery and passing range to hurt the opposition, but also provide more stability in midfield and make his side more difficult to play through. This is especially beneficial as the ease in which Southampton’s midfield seems to be bypassed and cut through in games has been a real area of concern of late.
With a midfield of Diallo, Lavia and Ward-Prowse ahead of them, Southampton should be much better in possession and able to pass through the lines more to get themselves up the pitch in a sustainable fashion. This solidity in the middle of the pitch and having there players comfortable taking the ball under pressure in this area should also help them sustain attacks and reduces the risk of being caught in the turnovers and countered.
Another positive for the Saints, coming at a time when there has not been too much to shout about, is the arrival of Argentinian Carlos Alcaraz from Racing Club. The 20-year-old can play as an attacking midfielder or out wide, but his best work is often from a number eight role. The young midfielder may take time to get up to speed, but he could be the perfect player to link the play for Southampton and create in dangerous areas. In 83 appearances in his homeland, Alcaraz has scored 12 and assisted six. Whilst the standard of the Premier League is far higher than that of the Argentinian top division, with age and experience these numbers should improve. If Jones is to revert to his seemingly favoured 3142 formation then Alcaraz will carry the creative burden in the midfield three. This should be a role he relishes and should see the largely ineffective Moi Elyounoussi, who usually occupies that position, come out of the side.
Against City, Southampton were aggressive, direct, and pressed high in a way their fans had yet to see under Jones. There was a clear plan in place and it was executed perfectly. Southampton must now take this approach into the league, regardless of what shape or personnel are involved. If they do, they might just have a chance of beating the drop.
