As we move through the second half of the Premier League season, Cal will be updating us with players he has spotted that West Ham should be scouting ahead of the next transfer window. Being our recruitment expert, Cal has a fantastic eye for a player – he spotted recent Arsenal signing Jakub Kiwior when the Pole was playing for MŠK Žilina in Slovakia and predicted Carlos Alcaraz’s move from Racing Club de Avellaneda to Southampton this summer. To hear his thoughts on who West Ham should be looking at in the next window, sign up and become an Analytics United member for just £4 per month.
Martin Terrier (25), Stade Rennais
Scoring goals has been a real problem for West Ham, who currently have the highest expected goals underperformance in the league, having scored nearly nine (8.6) goals fewer than expected. For all his strengths, Saïd Benrahma is not a reliable source of goals, and given Jarrod Bowen’s underperformance on the other side of the pitch, signing a more prolific left winger seems a sure-fire way to bolster this deficient frontline – Martin Terrier certainly fits the bill.
Terrier is a player some fans might already be familiar with, whether for his impressive goalscoring form in Ligue 1 or West Ham’s reported interest in him last summer. If those reports were true, then David Moyes and Rob Newman might well be kicking themselves, with the Frenchman proving that his 21-goal haul (0.55 per 90) in 2021-22 was no fluke by 12 goals (0.6 per 90) before rupturing his cruciate ligament in early January.
Most impressive is the fact that Terrier has dramatically outperformed his expected goal return in each of the last three seasons – 9 goals from 6.51 xG in 2020-21; 21 goals from 13.95 xG in 2021-22; 12 goals from 6.87 xG in 2022-23 – thanks in part to his freakish accuracy when shooting from outside the box. The underlying attacking numbers track well too; with 5 touches in the opposition box per 90 (97th percentile) and 58.5% shooting accuracy (94th percentile), it is no wonder that he is such a consistent scorer for this Rennes side. In addition, his 54.9% aerial duel success rate is a strength that West Ham would surely look to get the most out of by tasking Vladimír Coufal with finding him arriving late at the back post.
Beyond goals, Terrier is a little less impressive, but expecting him to maintain that level of quality across the board would be unreasonable. He is a good (56.1%; 78th percentile) but infrequent (3.3 per 90; 45th percentile) dribbler, nor does he boast particularly notable acceleration. Instead, he relies on his ability to identify, occupy, and receive in the half-spaces and make arcing runs into the channels, using his intelligence and strength rather than his pace to wriggle past opposition defenders. A particularly exciting prospect when thinking about Terrier’s role in this West Ham side is the revival of the relationship he had with Aguerd at Stade Rennais; the Moroccan centre-back would regularly play balls into the channel for him to chase down and get on the end of.
His defensive contribution would also be a positive addition to a West Ham side that has started and should really continue to press the opposition more aggressively in the opposition half. In terms of his defensive duel success rate (58.7%; 70th percentile) and possession-adjusted interceptions (4.21; 60th percentile), Terrier ranks above average when compared to his positional peers, and was 5th in the league in 2021-22 for pressures in the final third. Recruiting such a profile would enable West Ham to better sustain pressure when attacks are stifled; couple this ability to force high turnovers with his superior ability to make them count and Terrier looks like a solid upgrade on Benrahma.
The final point to note is Terrier’s relative lack of creativity when compared to other facets of his in-possession game. It is fair to say that, stylistically, Terrier is best used as a goal scorer rather than a provider, though he is still an above-average creative force according to the data and has recorded a similar volume (MT = 2.6; SB = 3) and accuracy (MT = 51.9%; SB = 45.5%) passing to the penalty area this season when compared to Benrahma. In theory, Terrier would not present a drop-off in shot creation if he were to replace the Algerian, nor would it require a huge stylistic shift; it seems reasonable to assume that, despite the comparative lack of pace, Terrier could play a similar role to Benrahma, but with the added benefit of an increased reliability when tasked with finishing off the chances his off-ball work has created.
Had Terrier not picked up such a serious injury in January, all the signs suggest that he would have had another eye-catching season in Rennes, earning himself a long list of suitors in the process. The lack of certainty over his return date and whether he will be able to rediscover such scintillating form will be a cause for concern for all interested parties, though it might also open the door for a cut-price deal to be negotiated if a team were willing to take the gamble. Fit or not, it seems fairly indisputable that Terrier’s qualities would strengthen an underperforming West Ham attack.
Talles Magno (20), New York City FC
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