Over the course of last season, no team better exemplified the adage that “football is a game of two halves” than Newcastle United. Eddie Howe’s energised, pressing, and disciplined side roared up the table to an 11th place finish by playing what may as well have been a different sport to the languid, directionless Bruce-ball we saw in their dismal start to the season. Of course, it’s not just on the pitch that the club underwent such a violently fast-paced transformation. Gone are the days of “ticking along” under the apathetic stewardship of Mike Ashley and Steve Bruce, replaced by inconceivable wealth and heightened expectations, tinged with a lingering sense of ethical unease.
Newcastle are a very different club now to what they were a year ago. They are a team in transition. Title ambitions will surely come with time, but for now a place in the Europa Conference League will be the target. A top half finish and European football would be a crucial next step for achieving the club’s long-term ambitions, helping them recruit higher quality players and continue their push towards a place among the global footballing elite. 2022-23 is a season of hope and optimism on Tyneside. But will the Magpies deliver?
Signing of the Summer – Sven Botman
After a protracted pursuit of one of Europe’s most talented young defenders yielded no success in January, Newcastle finally got their man this summer. Botman was highly coveted, with Newcastle eventually fighting off very real competition from Serie A champions AC Milan to secure his services. The £35m transfer from Lille is comparable to January’s acquisition of Bruno Guimarães: a statement signing whom the ownership hope will grow with the club.
Botman is left-footed and most comfortable on the left of a two-man centre-back partnership. This theoretically puts him in direct competition with January signing Dan Burn for a place in the Newcastle starting eleven (a competition he should win comfortably, albeit perhaps after a few weeks of settling into the Premier League). However, Botman is also capable of playing as a right-sided centre-back, so a Burn-Botman pairing is not out of the question. An ambitious, ball-playing centre-back, Botman’s 59.12 passes attempted per 90 minutes placed him in the top 30% of centre-backs in Europe’s top five leagues last season – he completed 89% of those passes. He averaged a goal every 10 games – impressive for a defender – and his 6’4” frame makes him a threat from set pieces (especially if he is paired with the 6’7” Burn). His ability to pick passes fits Eddie Howe’s preference for central defenders who can progress the ball and, along with Burn and Fabian Schär, Newcastle now have three defensive options who fit that mould.
Defensively, Botman’s analytics indicate a player who prefers to sit back and remain in position, rather than pressing and harrying the opposition. With 1.99 blocks per 90 last season, Botman excels at getting in the way of shots, whilst his defensive pressures and interceptions were both in the bottom quartile of centre-backs in Europe. This suits Newcastle who, in spite of Eddie Howe’s tactical changes, remain predominantly a counter-attacking team. Botman’s skillset will allow them to sit back, win the ball back, and advance it quickly. At 22 years old, Newcastle will be hoping that Botman can develop into an elite central defender, but the expectation will be for him to play a leading role for the club from an early stage.
Key Player – Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães is quickly becoming somewhat of a cult hero on Tyneside. That’s partly due to his blossoming bromance with the rejuvenated Joelinton but mostly because he is a genuinely magnificent footballer. Not since Yohan Cabaye have Newcastle had a player who oozes quite so much class in the middle of the park.
Newcastle knew they were getting a good player when they stumped up nearly £40m to sign Bruno from Lyon in January. He was excellent defensively, winning the ball back at an astounding rate with 3.75 tackles per 90 (placing him in the top 2% of all midfielders in Europe), and 24.47 pressures per 90 (top 8%). And he was also a creative force, with 7.13 progressive carries per 90 (top 5%) and 5.95 progressive passes (top 10%). In Ligue 1, Bruno was a complete central midfielder.
But there was no real indication that the player Newcastle were getting would be a ruthlessly efficient goal-scorer too. And yet, that is exactly what he was for the second half of last season. In just 11 starts (plus six substitute appearances), he scored five times. His non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists (which essentially measures the number of goals a player, on average, creates for their team) was 0.31 per 90 – meaning Bruno is basically good for a goal or an assist once every three games. He has become the heartbeat of this Newcastle team and he will be a scary proposition for opponents in his first full season in English football.
FPL Asset – Kieran Trippier
The 13 games Trippier missed last season due to a metatarsal fracture shortly after arriving at the club means the data on him is incomplete, but even in limited games his impact was clear to see. Despite being a defender, he is a threat from set pieces and scored twice from direct free kicks in just six Premier League appearances last season. The full backs are especially important in Eddie Howe’s system, and Trippier’s 6.37 progressive passes per 90 is indicative of his attacking responsibilities within the team.
Priced at just £5m in FPL, Trippier is bafflingly the exact same price as his opposite full back Matt Targett who, whilst a solid defensive player, offers far less attacking upside. The Toon’s defence should also be better than last year with the additions of Botman and Nick Pope. Pope represents an intriguing FPL option too, also priced at just £5m, though he comes with more risk as it’s not a given just yet that he will displace Martin Dúbravka as Newcastle’s number 1. In Trippier, you would be getting a surefire starter every week (assuming he stays fit) with huge attacking potential, playing in what should be a reasonable defensive unit.
Expected Eleven
As discussed earlier, Dan Burn could well be the pick to partner Botman, but in preseason Botman has played alongside Schär, enabling both to be deployed on their favoured side. As an Eddie Howe signing who has been quietly brilliant for Burnley over the past few seasons, Pope will likely replace Dúbravka in goal. In midfield, Newcastle will likely rotate Jonjo Shelvey with Joe Willock depending on what they feel a game requires. Shelvey offers a greater range of passing, whilst Willock is more of an attacking threat and would allow Bruno to shift into a more central position. The only other area of contention is the right wing, as Newcastle’s failed pursuit of Moussa Diaby has left them with an open competition between Miguel Almirón and Ryan Fraser. Almirón is probably edging that battle right now due to an impressive preseason campaign in which he has scored six times.
