West Ham enjoyed yet another impressive season under David Moyes in 2021-22, the highlight of which was surely reaching the semifinal of the Europa League, before falling to the eventual champions, Frankfurt. Beyond that, the London Stadium played host to some truly memorable moments, including Yarmolenko’s borderline tear-jerking extra time winner against Sevilla, and a penalty shootout victory over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup. Back in August 2021, it would have been fair to predict that, were West Ham to enjoy the lengthy cup runs that they ultimately did, their league form would suffer as a result of their small squad. That wasn’t to be the case though, with Moyes’ men digging in and returning some fantastic results, including wins over Liverpool and Chelsea, which saw the East London outfit secure a 7th-place finish and qualify for the Europa Conference League.
Now, with the new season almost upon us, Hammers’ fans will surely be hoping for more of the same, with Declan Rice captaining the side for at least one more season and star boy Jarrod Bowen ready to impress Gareth Southgate and force his way into his World Cup squad. It looks as though there will be a few additions to the supporting cast too, with the London Stadium’s resident pantomime-villains-cum-owners – David Gold, David Sullivan, and Karren Brady – prepared to provide Moyes with the financial backing that is required to compete for European football, though the recent arrival of Daniel Kretinsky and his millions will certainly have influenced this newfound lavishness. Nayef Aguerd, Alphonse Areola, Flynn Downes, and Gianluca Scamacca have already joined the squad, and it seems as though a new left-back and another central midfielder will be joining too. Victory in the Conference League and a Top 8 finish will surely be the ambition for West Ham this season, and we expect that these three players will be instrumental in bringing about such success.
Signing of the Summer – Nayef Aguerd
Barring the deal to bring Swansea’s Flynn Downes to the London Stadium, there is a trend amongst West Ham transfer business, in this window and windows past, for long, drawn out negotiations. The year-long pursuit of Jesse Lingard failed to come to fruition, and potential deals for Amadou Onana, Armando Broja, and Gianluca Scamacca all felt as though they had taken an age. The £30m transfer of Nayef Aguerd from Rennes was no different. There were a few moments where the move seemed in jeopardy, but Moyes got his man in the end, and my expectation is that the Moroccan international will, once fully fit at least, have a significant impact on West Ham’s backline.
For those of you that are familiar with mine and Jack’s work, you’ll know that we have wanted West Ham to sign a progressive, press-resistant, left-footed centre-back for a long time, and I am pleased to confirm that Aguerd is absolutely that player. There are several reasons why Aguerd should be a good fit for the Hammers, but the most striking, and exciting facet of his game is surely his ball-playing ability, something that West Ham will sorely need as Aaron Cresswell is phased out of the starting lineup.
Aguerd ranked in the 94th percentile for progressive passes per 90 in Ligue 1 last season, attempting an average of 10.2 per 90, which is more than Craig Dawson (5.7), Issa Diop (5.5), Angelo Ogbonna (5.2), and Kurt Zouma (3.7), and only marginally less than Cresswell (11.1). When you factor in their respective success rates, the two players complete an almost identical number of progressive passes per 90, with Cresswell averaging 8.5 (77% accuracy) and Aguerd 8.2 (80.6% accuracy). There were times last season when West Ham looked stagnant in build-up, particularly when Cresswell wasn’t in the side, so adding another player who can take on the role of quarterback will provide much-needed fluency in possession. In a similar vein, Aguerd’s ability to play line-breaking passes into the left channel should bring the best out of Michail Antonio, making this West Ham side even more lethal in transition.
Aguerd’s impressive distribution is undoubtedly linked to his calmness under pressure. Press-resistance, much like progressive passing, is something West Ham’s centre-backs have desperately lacked during Moyes’ tenure. The two humiliating home defeats to Leeds and Southampton last season highlighted their fragility against high-pressing opposition. Aguerd, a centre-back who is happy to invite the press and play bisecting passes that take opposition attackers out of the game, is a welcome upgrade on the likes of Dawson and Diop, both of whom have shown a preference to punt long or turn away from the press and put their goalkeeper in a sticky situation.
Another area of real strength for Aguerd is his aerial ability, something that Moyes will no doubt have taken a liking to when assessing the player. In 2021-22, the Moroccan international won an impressive 64.4% of his aerial duels, more than any West Ham centre-back, the best of whom was Ogbonna, winning 59.5%. The perks of his aerial prowess are two-fold in the context of a David Moyes’ side. He provides a further threat from set-pieces, whilst also allowing West Ham to defend their own box effectively after funnelling the opposition out wide. Given that he cost upwards of £25m, it is fair to assume that Aguerd will replace Dawson in the starting line-up and become a real staple in this West Ham side. The obvious concern with losing Dawson is that you lose a genuine goal threat, particularly from corners, but Aguerd scored the same number of headed goals as Dawson last season (4), despite playing 230 less minutes.
Key Player – Jarrod Bowen
The importance of Jarrod Bowen to this West Ham side has already been alluded to in this article, and anyone that watched the Premier League last season will likely have been blown away by his development. For those West Ham fans that have watched him week in week out though, there will be a hope and genuine belief that Bowen can take his game to even loftier heights. 18 (non-penalty) goals and 11 assists in all competitions equates to 0.6 goal contributions per 90, an impressive return by anyone’s standards, but there were plenty of moments last season when it felt as though Bowen could have come away from games with even more, despite outperforming his season xG tally (16.25) by 1.75. Bowen was one of only two players to finish the Premier League season with double figures in both goals and assists, Mohamed Salah being the other, and whilst maintaining this form next season would be enough to keep West Ham fans happy, improving on it would be even better.
Beyond Bowen’s obvious attacking contribution and impressive metrics – 2.3 shots per 90, 42.5% shooting accuracy, 15% goal conversion rate – his ball-carrying ability is also crucial to a West Ham team that often look most dangerous on the counter. Last season, Bowen averaged 1.5 progressive runs per 90, as well as 4.3 dribble attempts with a success rate of 47.1%. Compared to other wingers in the league, this is not an especially high return, but in the context of this West Ham side, who ranked 17th in the league last season for dribbles per 90 (ahead of Leicester, Burnley and Brentford), Bowen’s importance on the counter cannot be understated. Only Saïd Benrahma (3), Declan Rice (2.8) and Michail Antonio (1.8) recorded more progressive runs per 90 than Bowen, and it seems as though only two of those three will be nailed on starters in 2022-23… sorry Saïd.
The final area worth noting when assessing Bowen’s importance to this West Ham team is his set-piece delivery. Moyes’ boys have earned a reputation as a team who are dangerous from set pieces and, having scored 14 goals from set-pieces in the Premier League last season (5th; Manchester City ranked 1st with 21 set-piece goals) and a further five goals in cup competitions, this reputation is justified. Bowen’s left foot is crucial to this, having created a shot from a dead-ball situation every other game (0.57 per 90) in the Premier League last season, ranking in the 91st percentile, and a goal every 9th game (0.12 per 90; 96th percentile). Of course, delivery is only half of the equation as it means nothing if there is nobody on the end of it, but with the recent arrivals of Aguerd and Scamacca, as well as a rejuvenated Tomáš Souček, it seems fair to assume that West Ham might be even more potent from such situations this season. Long story short, the stage is set for Bowen to have another eye-catching campaign in East London, and it would not be at all surprising if Europe’s biggest clubs are fighting for his signature next summer.
FPL Asset – Vladimir Coufal
Okay, so it would be very easy to just choose Bowen again here, and whilst he absolutely should be in your thinking, his £8.5m price tag makes him a little too pricey to be considered undervalued this season. Vladimir Coufal, however, does feel like a good cheap option this season, having had his price reduced from £5m to £4.5m.
Despite still clocking four Premier League assists, Coufal did not enjoy the best of seasons in 2021-22, largely due to an injury that he picked up in February and the subsequent surgery that saw him spend a couple of months on the sidelines. Following his return to the team in April, he did show glimpses of the player that West Ham fans fell in love with the season prior, and if his social media posts this summer are anything to go by then there is every reason to believe that prime Coufal will be returning.
In 2020-21, Coufal finished the season with six assists and nine clean sheets to his name. If he can match that return this season, or something similar, then £4.5m could prove to be a steal for the Czech fullback. The new arrivals this summer should make him even more of an FPL asset too. Areola and Aguerd should help to shore up the backline, leading to more clean sheets for West Ham, and the signing of the 6’5” Scamacca could well mean that Coufal’s 4.2 crosses per 90 are turned into a number of headed goals, taking his assist return to an even higher level then before.
Expected Eleven
With the transfer links showing no signs of stopping and David Moyes experimenting with a few formations in preseason, it’s difficult to know how West Ham will line up in 2022-23. Links to Filip Kostić would suggest that Moyes is preparing to utilise a wing-back system, though many fans would probably prefer to see us bring in players to strengthen the 4-2-3-1 system that has served West Ham so well over the last two seasons. There are several questions regarding the best starting eleven, even with the squad in its current state, namely who starts in goal and whether Fornals plays on the left wing or at the 10.
Given that Scamacca cost circa £40m, it seems likely that he will feature in the starting eleven, which then raises the question of how Antonio fits into the team this season too. The Jamaican international has needed cover for a while now, and whilst giving him a rest here and there would be sensible, his importance to West Ham and their recent success means that he will surely feature somewhere in the lineup, perhaps back out on the wing.
Then, if you factor in the rumours regarding their reported pursuit of a new left-back, right-sided central midfielder, number 10 and/or left winger, it really is impossible to predict what Moyes’ preferred starting eleven will be this season. The flipside of this uncertainty, however, is a newfound versatility that West Ham haven’t had for a while, with the personnel to play a number of different formations.
