Brighton fans will be fully braced for a slightly more testing season this time out following a very productive 2021-22 campaign – last season was the Albion’s best ever in the Premier League by almost every metric. Points (51), wins (12), fewest losses (11), goals scored (42), fewest goals conceded (44), goal difference (-2), highest league finish (9th), most points above relegation zone (16) – everything clicked last year for the Seagulls with travelling fans treated to some outstanding away performances and results.
The major concern however, will be keeping the team that achieved so much together. Malian midfielder Yves Bissouma has switched to Spurs for £30 million, but Brighton’s superb succession planning means Moisés Caicedo is well placed to step up to ease the blow following his gradual integration into the team at the end of last season.
If Manchester City opt to step up their pursuit of Marc Cucurella, then things could get more tricky. Not only is the Spaniard a superb footballer who has adapted well to football on the south-coast, but he ranks particularly high for ball recoveries and interceptions. With Bissouma already gone, a lack of ball winning ability may leave Brighton exposed to more transition attacks. It is something that has been ironed out effectively over Potter’s reign, but with Brighton’s desire to play high and dominate the ball, losing two of the team’s top ball-winners will likely inhibit their counter-pressing.
It’s not all about who’s leaving, however. Introducing one of Brighton’s returning loan army…
Best Signing – Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav is a new signing in so much that he is joining up with his Brighton teammates for the first time this summer having joined back in January for a sensible fee of £6m. His form up until that point – 27 goal involvements with 18 goals and nine assists by January – certainly justified a move to the English top flight.
Part of the reason Brighton were able to lead and win the race for the prolific forward is Tony Bloom’s involvement in Union Saint-Gilloise. Bloom holds a significant share in the club which has taken on other Albion loanees over previous seasons and this year it is the turn of new signing Simon Adringa to spend a season in Belgium.
It isn’t just the pure quantity of goal contributions that will excite Brighton – Undav’s ‘Goal Impact’, a metric devised to indicate the importance of goals based on points outcome and game-state changing goals, saw him rank fourth in Belgium’s top tier (Analytics FC). It is perhaps surprising that he ranked so high in a team performing so well, proving his remarkable tally was not simply the result of adding third or fourth goals against inferior opposition.
Over the full season his impact for USG was consistent. Undav ranked top amongst all Pro League players for goals and assists combined (34), total shots taken (127), fouls won (74) and shots taken inside the six-yard box (16).
Brighton’s love-hate (mostly hate) relationship with expected goals has been well-documented, last year they underperformed their expected goals tally slightly despite a fantastic season (40 goals, 46.0 xG). And in the season before they managed a points underperformance of 20.47. A born goalscorer like Undav, will surely help conversion rates and perhaps will see the Seagulls creep onto the right side of those razor thin Premier League margins.
Key Player – Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard ended last season in stellar form for both club and country – his final 10 games of the season saw him notch seven goals and four assists, with just under 2 chances created per game. He appears to be carrying on where he left off too, netting a hattrick and also registering an assist in Brighton’s final preseason game against Espanyol.
He has grown to be one of the most important attacking players in the side, whether he plays as an attacker or not – he has frequently been used at left wing-back with Cucurella dropping into the left of a back three. He enjoys constant touches of the ball, and when dribbling will shift the ball repeatedly with drag-backs and deft directional touches.
This makes him useful in unpicking stubborn low-block defences, as he will often draw two or three defenders towards him as he appears to dwell on the ball before moving possession on. Thanks to this trait he is occasionally guilty of slowing transition attacks but this is generally not how Brighton prefer to play – Potter’s side recorded the second slowest direct speed up-field in the Premier League last season behind Manchester City.
In 2021-22, Trossard starred and scored some extremely important goals, notably away at Brentford and Spurs at opposite ends of the season. He registered 11 goals and assists from an xG+A of 12.8, coming from 26 shots on target over a full season. His creative capabilities were also clear with 91 shot-creating actions registered, and 65 successful passes and crosses into the opposition box. Overlapping or underlapping runs from Cucurella were a common theme, with Trossard threading the defender in behind to deliver his trademark pull-back crosses.
Where he can improve will depend on where Graham Potter sees him playing long term. New signing Undav played mostly on the right in a strike-partnership at the top-end of a 352, with fellow new arrival from USG Kaoru Mitoma deployed often as a left wing-back. Trossard has appeared as a lone striker, a partner to Neal Maupay or Danny Welbeck, a left-winger in a three-pronged attack and indeed as a left wing-back in a three-box-three set up. The ‘dash’ button is getting a hammering as I type this with a myriad of positions and formations available, such is the flexibility and tactical innovation in Potter’s methods.
FPL Asset – Lewis Dunk
I love FPL. Analytics help you to see clearly beyond the excess of information input, and allow you to stick to the basic principle of Fantasy Football that should govern your playing methods: Focus on the decision, not the outcome. You’re chasing ghosts otherwise. There’s no way to get everything right, it’s always about maximising the chance of luck being on your side.
Lewis Dunk has fallen in price for this year, which makes him instantly a very attractive proposition with a strong FPL record before last season, where unusually, he missed many weeks with injury. Otherwise, he is club captain, a talisman, and one of the most accomplished defenders at the club. He is safe to start, which means he is safe for points.
In 2020-21, for example, the Albion skipper ranked second amongst all defenders for shots in the box and tenth for expected goals – and was the joint top-scoring defender with 5 five goals. Albion’s out swinging corners, the careful preparation of space with blockers and the second six-yard-box often left free means that everything is set up to give the team’s best headers of the ball in Dunk and Webster a chance to direct the ball towards goal (note, with an outswinging corner the ball is moving away from the goalkeeper, and more accurately simulates a more common scenario for defenders – the ball coming towards them to be redirected).
The missing ingredient is a perfect delivery. Step forward, Pascal Groß. The German creative genius was the most accurate corner taker in the Premier League last season, with 42% of his corners (40/96) leading to an attacking first contact. He has relentlessly created chances since joining the Seagulls from Ingolstadt back in 2017, and last season ranked among the top ten players for dead-ball shot-creating actions for the fourth time in five Premier League seasons, with a third-highest total of 37.
He’s another option worth considering – but ultimately, he is the facilitator to Dunk who, if he can stay fit, is a reliable source of goals and will be a mainstay in a solid Brighton defence. I expect a slightly more testing season defensively, but this may even work in Dunk’s favour, as an increase in defensive actions coupled with occasional clean sheets will help him rack up bonus points.
Expected Eleven
Now this really is anyone’s guess. With so many returning loan players who have impressed last season and played a full part in pre-season, Potter suddenly has a wealth of options to call on both offensively and defensively. A recent friendly against Reading saw a back three of Joel Veltman, Lewis Dunk, and Marc Cucurella – no place for record signing Adam Webster who has had a worrying time with injuries.
Attacking enigmas Jeremy Sarmiento and Julio Encisco are undefined in every sense, not just whether they’ll play, but where. They are dribbly, very dribbly in fact, but it is unclear as to whether Potter sees them carrying the ball from central areas receiving in the half-space, or from deeper, wider positions as proxy wing-backs a la Leandro Trossard.
Neal Maupay has been the subject of recent transfer speculation, but was the club’s top scorer last season. Danny Welbeck looks sharp, and will likely start the season leading the line, which might mean no place for the free-scoring Deniz Undav.
To demonstrate the options, two elevens can be formed of remarkable strength for a club of Brighton’s size. No doubt a few unknown names for some, but they are all highly regarded at the club. Jean Paul van Hecke, player of the year at Blackburn last season, Champions League winner Adam Lallana, and a host of internationals for Japan, Colombia, Paraguay, Ireland and beyond cannot crack the first team. The only significant drop in quality is in goal, where Spanish international Robert Sanchez dominates.
Sánchez, Lamptey, Veltman, Dunk, Webster, Cucurella, Mac Allister, Caicedo, Groß, Welbeck, Trossard
Steele, March, Clarke, Duffy, van Hecke, Mitoma, Mwepu, Lallana, Alzate, Maupay, Undav
Unused: Sarmiento, Encisco.
The slightly mad thing is, despite me excluding them even from a second team based on their lack of experience and uncertainty around where they’ll play, Sarmiento has made such an impression he is likely to be involved as different option from the bench, and Encisco the same after initially being earmarked as ripe for a loan move. At such young ages, their talent and commitment has made Graham Potter take notice, and Potter will not hesitate to use their directness if a change of tact is required against typically stubborn Premier League defences.
Without doubt, there is lots to be excited about as Brighton look forward to the new season. Unknowns have reliably been solved by Potter, with a refreshing positivity and an eagerness to help players push themselves and develop. That commitment is perhaps the only certainty going into 2022-23.
