Southampton fans endured a real rollercoaster ride last season. The club managed to go from having a realistic chance of finishing in the top half of the Premier League to flirting with relegation. Perhaps what best defines their season, as well as their inconsistency under Ralph Hasenhüttl’s tenure, is the fact that the Saints went from a run of one defeat in ten league games immediately into a run of just one win in 12 games to close the season. Ultimately, the season culminated in a 15th placed finish for Southampton. It felt like a year in which the club should have been aiming higher, with Hasenhüttl constantly reiterating in the last month of the season that the club’s aim remained a top ten finish.
This season it is difficult to gauge what the south coast club should be targeting. A top ten finish and a run in the cup may well be the target once more, although the former is something they have now gone five years without achieving. The club was taken over by Sport Republic in January, but the new owners were quick to manage expectations and stated that it would effectively be a continuation of the approach by the previous regime. This was a clever move by the new men in charge as they have now exceeded fans’ expectations through the ambition shown and a desire to get young, talented players through the door.
The shift in transfer strategy began last summer, prior to the takeover, and saw the club attract some of the country’s finest academy talents through the reassurance that they will get first team opportunities at St Mary’s. Tino Livramento had never made a senior appearance before making the move from Chelsea, but made 32 appearances in all competitions for Southampton last season. Armando Broja found success on loan from Chelsea, while young left-back Thierry Small signed from Everton and centre-back Dynel Simeu also joined from Chelsea; both earmarked as real talents for the future. There has been a further injection of youth into the squad this summer, with only two of Southampton’s six signings so far over the age of 20. This is a strategy that can bear fruit, with players that will develop and have high resale values if Southampton are inclined to cash in, but it is also a risk. Regardless of players’ ability, experience can be worth its weight in gold. As the season plays out we will begin to see if it is a strategy that pays off for Southampton.
Signing of the Summer – Joe Aribo
With Tino Livramento’s breakthrough season at the club at just 18 last season, as well as Armando Broja’s 38 appearances in all competitions in a season he began aged 19, players now know that Southampton will back up their promise of opportunities for young players. This, coupled with the capture of Manchester City’s former Head of Recruitment and Talent Management, Joe Shields, has seen the club make some really exciting signings this summer. Shields’ former employers have been raided for talented holding midfielder Roméo Lavia (18) and goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu (20); the fact that the latter spent last season on loan at bitter rivals Portsmouth before being pinched pleasing Southampton fans no end. Central defender Armel Bella-Kotchap, also 20, has signed from Mainz and already looks an imposing figure despite his tender years. And with Broja’s future lying elsewhere, the club have just announced that 19-year-old Bordeaux striker Sékou Mara has agreed to sign. It would be a worry if he is the only striker signed though, as currently the club only have Che Adams and Adam Armstrong as first team strikers – links with Liam Delap of Manchester City refuse to go away and despite his obvious talents at youth level, it would still be a significant risk to place the goalscoring burden on a striker so young.
Despite all of these exciting, yet inexperienced, additions, the pick of Southampton’s summer signings looks to be Joe Aribo. Signed for just £6m from Rangers, in a deal that could rise to £10m, Aribo looks like real value for money. He is a player that has been on the club’s radar for a number of years too, Southampton went in for Aribo when he made the move from Charlton Athletic to Rangers three years ago. Now 26, and off the back of another strong season north of the border, it feels like the perfect time for Aribo to have brought his talents to the Premier League. Although goal contributions in the Scottish Premier League do not necessarily translate to the English top flight, Southampton look to have acquired a real goal threat from midfield. A vital addition given that this is something they have sorely lacked in recent seasons, James Ward-Prowse’s ten-goal return last season was impressive but skewed by the fact that eight of those goals came from set pieces.
The Nigerian scored nine goals and managed ten assists in all competitions for Rangers last season and can play a variety of positions, including: central midfield, attacking midfield, out wide, or even up front. It will be interesting to see where Hasenhüttl feels Aribo’s skillset can be best utilised, the 26-year-old has played a number of different roles in pre-season already. Whilst Aribo is capable of playing slightly deeper, the fact that he was in the top 3%* of attacking midfielders and wingers in Europe’s top five leagues last season for expected assists suggests the closer you can get Aribo to the opposition goal the better. It is worth noting, of course, that in playing for Rangers Aribo was not himself playing in a top five European league, but it remains a useful comparison. It is not just his attacking exploits that made Southampton spring into action to secure his services either. Hasenhüttl likes to play with a gegenpress, which means a lot of pressing high up the pitch to win the ball as far into the opponents’ half as possible. Aribo is perfectly suited to this, with his 20.36 pressures per 90 minutes last season ranking him in the 79th percentile of those in his position in Europe’s top five leagues. He exceeded this with interceptions and clearances, ranking in the top 5% for both. Another thing he will add to his new side is a real physical presence which is something that Southampton do lack slightly. He was in the top 1% for aerial duels won, showing that he can be incredibly dominant aerially. The fact that he is left footed is also a blessing, as Saints lack players who are dominant on their left side.
*Percentile data based on Aribo’s appearances in the Europa League.
Key Player – James Ward-Prowse
Even though standards slipped towards the end of last season, James Ward-Prowse is one player whose performances rarely faltered. Now 27, the central midfielder born in Portsmouth is well on his way to cementing legend status among the St Mary’s faithful. Having seemingly taken his game to another level with each passing season, there is no doubt that Ward-Prowse is one of the main beneficiaries of Hasenhüttl’s appointment in 2018. Prior to the Austrian coach arriving at the club, Ward-Prowse had struggled to tie down a regular place and his future at the club was far from guaranteed. Fast forward almost four years and he is indispensable.
His performances were so impressive last season that Gareth Southgate could ignore him no longer for England and Ward-Prowse will be determined to hit the ground running this season to try to secure a seat on the plane to Qatar for the winter World Cup. He gets more attention from elsewhere nowadays, largely due to his set-piece mastery, but his game is so much more developed than just being a dead-ball-specialist. He is the heartbeat of the team and dictates the game from his deep-six position. He sets the tempo, flies into challenges, and leaves no blade of grass untouched in his quest to secure victory for the teammates that call him captain. His endurance is quite extraordinary too. At the end of the 2021-22 season, Ward-Prowse became the first midfielder to play every minute of two consecutive Premier League seasons. In a team that plays such an aggressive style, and for a player who expends so much energy over every 90 minutes, that is an incredible feat.
It does not matter who Southampton bring in, as long as Ward-Prowse stays at St Mary’s he is likely to remain a key player. Last season was by far the midfielder’s most productive season in terms of goal contributions too and he is rapidly closing in on David Beckham’s Premier League record for goals directly from free kicks, his tally of 14 now sits just four behind that of the legendary England midfielder. With over 300 Premier League appearances, Ward-Prowse could have a higher pass completion than his 78.5% over the past year, but his attacking influence from deep would dwindle if he were to take less risks in possession. The fact that their captain ranks in the top 8% of midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues for expected assists, performing 3.16 shot creating actions per 90 minutes (top 10%), will be what really matters to Southampton fans.
FPL Asset – Che Adams
If you are looking for a cheap striker for your Fantasy Premier League side then look no further than Che Adams. While you could argue there are a number of more glamorous picks for your team’s forward line, often the majority of the budget has gone on one of the big name strikers. Adams represents very good value at £6.5m, especially given he is likely to start the majority of games as things stand. The Scotland international striker was the 13th highest scoring attacker in FPL last season, earning a respectable 103 points and finishing the season wedged between Danny Ings and Raúl Jiménez in the points chart.
Since his decision to represent Scotland at international level, Adams’ performances have been notably more mature. His goals seem to come in fits and spurts and he is a striker that benefits from playing alongside a partner up front, but he also works incredibly hard and is very effective at bringing his teammates into play. Last season, Adams managed eight goals and three assists in all competitions, with nine goals and five assists the season before. The 26-year-old will be desperate to break the ten goal mark for the first time in his Premier League career and will likely have more responsibility given the youthful nature of new signing Sékou Mara and target Liam Delap; both still teenagers.
Adams himself will know he should score more goals and he has been susceptible to missing big chances in his time at Southampton. In order to achieve this he needs to shoot more. The best strikers have an element of greed about their game, with their desire to score goals greater than anything else. Last season, Adams ranked in the bottom 25% of strikers in Europe’s top five leagues for shots per 90 but this was somewhat balanced by his above average ranking for expected assists (top 39%). After playing second fiddle to Armando Broja at times last season, fans will hope the extra responsibility will lead to Adams taking more shots and becoming more merciless in front of goal. If this comes into fruition then £6.5m could prove to be a steal for FPL managers.
Expected Eleven
It is difficult to predict how Southampton may line up this season for a number of reasons. Following the dismal end to last season, Southampton got rid of most of Hasenhüttl’s coaching staff and replaced them to inject fresh ideas and impetus. This has led to many predicting that Hasenhüttl could deviate from his favoured 4222 formation in a quest to be more defensively solid. It feels as though the personnel could perform well in a 433 formation and the addition of two new midfield players may also lend itself to having more bodies in the middle of the pitch. Interestingly though, Hasenhüttl has largely played with a back three in pre-season. It is unclear whether this is genuine preparation to play a new formation or if he just feels it is the best way to give minutes to his most important players, especially given that the club only has three fit full-backs at this time.
If it is to be a back three, preseason would suggest that the midfield could set-up as either one ‘6’ with two number ‘8’s’ ahead of them and one attacking midfield player behind a striker or alternatively, and possibly better suiting the players available, it could look like more of a 3421. In both systems Romain Perraud and Kyle Walker-Peters, in the absence of the injured Tino Livramento, would provide the width.
Gavin Bazunu should start the season as first choice goalkeeper after impressing in preseason, as well as simply being a superior ‘keeper to Alex McCarthy despite his youth. Jan Bednarek has been linked with a move away but should provide the experienced head in between the more raw duo of Armel Bella-Kotchap and Mohammed Salisu. James Ward-Prowse will of course take up a spot in midfield but his usual partner Oriol Romeu may well see his spot alongside the skipper taken by 18-year-old Roméo Lavia. Lavia has seemingly been favoured in preseason, getting more minutes and taking up Romeu’s preferred deeper role even when the two have been on the pitch at the same. In the attacking midfield spots Joe Aribo will likely start, while the other spot will be taken by any one of Stuart Armstrong, Moi Elyounoussi or Nathan Redmond. Elyounoussi may well get the nod after reviving his Southampton career last season. Currently, it looks as though it’ll be a battle between Che Adams and Adam Armstrong for the starting striker spot. And while Adams has proven that he is very capable at this level, unfortunately for Armstrong, this is still up for debate.
