The biggest remaining issue for Fulham identified in Analytics United’s season preview was central defence. When the Cottagers kicked off their impressive season opener against Liverpool, they still had just two senior centre-backs on the books. One of those, Tim Ream, was the subject of serious doubts over his ability to cope with the pace of Premier League attackers. Ream has somewhat silenced his critics by looking like the safer option compared to his defensive partner Tosin Adarabioyo in the opening two games but, nonetheless, reinforcements were sorely needed.
After fans waited all window for a centre-back, wondering if the extra preparation time afforded by automatic promotion had been wasted, two came along at once. First, Shane Duffy arrived on loan from Brighton, a perhaps unexciting but important addition who provides depth and Premier League experience. And shortly after, the long-speculated transfer of Issa Diop from West Ham finally reached its conclusion. Diop comes with plenty of question marks, but at £15 million and having signed a five-year deal, Fulham will be hoping he can finally realise his considerable potential on the banks of the Thames.
So what do Diop and Duffy bring to Craven Cottage? And which of them, if either, will be first to break up the Ream-Tosin partnership that has started the season surprisingly well?
Shane Duffy – The Brighton View
“Shane Duffy was at one time part of a formidable partnership at Brighton. Alongside Lewis Dunk he was a big part of the team staying in the Premier League over the first few seasons back in the top-flight, and will be hoping to repeat the trick at Fulham. Duffy’s strengths and weaknesses are clear, hence why he thrived under Chris Hughton in a low-block defence and has since failed to satisfy Graham Potter that he can play a more expansive style. He excels in the air and at averting danger, topping the Premier League charts in the 2017-18 (368) and 2018-19 seasons (312) for clearances. You would struggle to find a player nowadays with a bigger passion for defending and he’s also a huge threat from set-pieces. He can play in the centre of a back three, or alongside a player with more technical ability in a back four. So long as he is not asked to play in an extremely high line or progress the ball with dribbles or difficult forward passes, he can add a lot to Fulham’s defensive options.” – Charlie Benny
Analysing Duffy
In truth, Fulham manager Marco Silva likely sees Duffy as cover and he is unlikely to start too many games. With that role in mind, signing Duffy on loan looks like an astute piece of business.
Duffy is a monster in the air. His 4.81 aerials won per 90 puts him in the top percentile of central defenders in Europe’s top five leagues. This makes him a formidable presence from set pieces at both ends of the pitch – which accounts for him also ranking in the top percentile in shots attempted per 90 (1.2) and the fourth percentile for touches in the opposition box (1.54). As the dawn of the five-substitute era in the Premier League enables managers to experiment with greater specialisation, Duffy represents an intriguing tactical option as a “closer”. Marco Silva has already used Duffy in this way once, bringing him on in stoppage time against Liverpool. Late in games, Duffy’s aerial proficiency will be useful in matches where Fulham are trying to defend a late lead, helping them deal more effectively with long balls forward. But he also provides a greater goal threat in games where they trail late and may look to play for set pieces.
Duffy is best suited to a low-block or mid-block and is uncomfortable pushing out as part of a high defensive line. His 5.41 pressures per 90 (bottom 6th percentile) and 1.2 interceptions per 90 (bottom 5th percentile) illustrate his preference for standing off and defending deep. This makes him a good fit for a team who are inevitably going to have to soak up a lot of pressure this season. Duffy is, however, a surprisingly good passer, completing 88.4% of his passes and he should be a capable starting option if called on.
Issa Diop – The West Ham View
“Issa Diop impressed in his first season at West Ham. He showed glimmers of the kind of aggression and confidence anyone would look for in a young centre-back, and when coupled with his physical profile, he looked like a hugely promising player. But that positivity slowly faded. Diop’s spidery legs launching into sliding tackles went from a positive on recovery in an offside trap system to a liability in a low-block system. He has not been well-suited to Moyes’ defensive approach at all and has regularly erred thanks to lapses in concentration that have undermined otherwise positive team performances. But to his credit, he has always been a good option in possession, and his passing ability has been shown on counter-attacks numerous times.” – Jack Elderton
Analysing Diop
Diop is the signing with the more potential, expectation, and hype surrounding him, but looking at the analytics alone his strengths are less clear. At some point Diop will likely take over from Tim Ream and partner Tosin at the back for Fulham, but with Ream’s impressive start to the season the new signing may have to wait for the veteran American to make a mistake.
Defensively, the only area Diop really excels in is blocks, where his 1.85 shots blocked per 90 puts him comfortably in the top half of central defenders in Europe. But he is much worse in the air than Duffy, ranking in the bottom quarter with 2.03 aerials won per 90. His 6.82 pressures and 1.79 interceptions per 90 are also not much better than Duffy’s, which is a concern.
Fulham will be hoping that Diop’s less-than-impressive data is simply the result of a combination of small sample size (he only played 26 times in all competitions last season with only half of those appearances coming in the Premier League) and playing in a system that didn’t suit him. Nonetheless, when the fees are accounted for, Duffy looks like the smarter signing on paper. Fulham were simply desperate for bodies in central defence – time will tell if they’ve picked the right ones.
