Southampton’s 0-1 defeat away at Aston Villa in their last game is one that can be filed firmly under the category of ‘worst Premier League games of all time’. Under the Villa Park lights on a Friday evening, it had the makings of an entertaining game, but this could not have been further from reality.
Villa were really, really, bad and Southampton were somehow worse. It was a game that neither side deserved to win, but Villa were the side that managed to find a goal; scoring shortly before half-time. The referee on the night, Tony Harrington, should have blown the full-time whistle there and then to put spectators out of their misery.
It may sound like a harsh analysis of the game, but the lack of quality on show was something that simply is not associated with Premier League football in 2022. Neither side looked capable of stringing any passes together or keeping any meaningful possession and the lack of chances created was striking. Steven Gerrard and his Villa side won’t care one bit, having taken the three points, but for Southampton it was a performance that left a really bitter taste in the mouth. Every team is allowed an off day, but this felt like a culmination of problems that have been threatening to rear their ugly head for Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side for a while now. Granted, usually Southampton are better at building through the pitch and utilising their central midfield players to progress the ball (James Ward-Prowse = 6.1 progressive passes per 90, 48th percentile amongst Premier League central midfielders in 2022-23), but the lack of creativity once they reach the final third is a problem that has been endemic at the club for some time now.
The Saints only managed to register one shot on target in 90 minutes against a very poor Aston Villa side and created nothing of note to threaten their opponents’ backline. The club made no secret of their desire to sign a starting striker in the summer but failed to do so. Instead, the only attacking signing was 19-year-old Sékou Mara from Bordeaux. With Armando Broja returning to parent club Chelsea, Hasenhüttl’s men look very light up top. The flurry of goals that Che Adams managed last month was enough to appease fans in the short-term, but now that those goals have dried up the lack of firepower is alarming.
The latest formation to be favoured in Hasenhüttl’s game of formation roulette this season has been 4231 and that is how the team lined up against Villa. This formation means that only one striker is needed, perhaps why Hasenhüttl is using it, and this striker has been Adams, with Adam Armstrong – one of the other two strikers – occupying a position on the left wing. In truth, even if the club had signed a marquee centre-forward in the summer, it is difficult to see how they could thrive given the lack of creativity and service that Southampton are providing for their solo striker; Southampton’s current expected goal return of 1.2 per 90 is the lowest it has been since Hasenhüttl arrived in 2018, marking the low point of an alarming season-on-season trend (2019-20 = 1.46 xG per 90; 2020-21 = 1.3 per 90; 2021-22 = 1.28 per 90; 2022-23 = 1.2 per 90).
Generally speaking, when Southampton attack, they flood forward and there is a wave of players entering the final third at speed to support. However, against Aston Villa Adams looked as isolated as any striker wearing Southampton colours has done in quite some time. Adams is a good striker, but his strengths lie in his work-rate and bringing teammates into play. He is a striker who needs bodies around him to benefit from his qualities. With the system, personnel, and approach against Villa, he was fighting a losing battle.
So, how do Southampton solve the creativity problem they face? The truth is that within their current squad they do not possess a natural playmaker. This is not unusual in the Premier League today, as in a league of such fine margins and where every player must be at their maximum it is often playmakers who are deemed too much of a luxury. Creativity then comes from other means. When Southampton have been successful in their recent history it has been through ball-carriers in the final third; last season, the Saints averaged the 7th highest number of carries into the final third in the league (13.2), whereas they currently rank 3rd lowest (8.9) thanks to a considerable drop-off. Hasenhüttl’s gegenpress principles depend on players getting into the final third, or ‘red zone’ as he labels it, as quickly and often as possible but that simply is not happening at present.
In Stuart Armstrong, Hasenhüttl has had a player over the past couple of seasons who is very adept at progressing the ball through his dribbling ability and is a powerful runner with the ball at his feet; this season (5.2), last season (7.4) and in 2020-21 (6.1), Armstrong was the Saints midfielder with the most progressive carries per 90. The Scotland international often draws in opposing players before accelerating past them. For a prolonged period of time, Armstrong was one of the first names on the teamsheet, occupying the right ‘number 10’ role on a weekly basis. He was the player in the Southampton squad who understood the requirements of that role the best and he was very effective. Unfortunately, due to injuries initially and form since, Armstrong has not been able to find the same level of effectiveness in that role and it has heavily impacted the chance creation of the side. The changes in system have not helped Armstrong either, nor has not being given an extended run in the side to regain form.
Taking Adam Armstrong out of the equation – as he should still be considered a striker rather than a creator – in those advanced midfield roles Southampton have Joe Aribo, Moussa Djenepo, Stuart Armstrong, Moi Elyounnoussi, Theo Walcott, and Samuel Edozie to pick from.
Aribo is similar to Stuart Armstrong in that he is at his best when running with the ball (2.4 progressive runs per 90 for Rangers in 2021-22), drawing in challenges and taking players out of the game by dribbling past them (56.5% dribble success from 5.8 dribble attempts per 90 last season). If Southampton are going to return to being a team that creates numerous chances in a game, it feels as though one of Aribo or Stuart Armstrong needs to play. Whether playing both together would be effective is up for debate, but their ability to progress the ball up the pitch is something that Southampton have been missing. There is a far smaller sample size to analyse what 19-year-old Edozie can offer, but from his two cameos so far, the Manchester City academy graduate looks like more of a direct, throwback of a winger. He is very quick, skilful dribbler who looks fearless despite – or perhaps because of – his inexperience. Nothing demonstrates this better than the fact that in the 17 minutes Edozie played against Wolves, having come on for his Premier League debut, no player completed more take-ons (2 from 2).
Theo Walcott is now 33 and has not featured at all yet this season, having been told he could leave in the summer if a suitable offer came in. Therefore, there is little merit in assessing what he could offer to this side in terms of creativity. Moussa Djenepo has performed admirably in an unfamiliar left-back role so far this season; so much so, in fact, that he earned himself a new three-year contract extension recently. Having revived his Southampton career through demonstrating his adaptability, it was a return to a more familiar position as a winger against Villa for the Malian. Unfortunately, though, it was back to the frustrating player the Southampton faithful have grown all too accustomed to. A bag of tricks but incredibly inconsistent, Djenepo’s occasional sparks of brilliance do little to outweigh his often-disastrous performances. Perhaps the club’s hierarchy jumped the gun a little in offering the 24 year-old a new deal.
Elyounnoussi is a player who has started the past six league game for Southampton, and it feels like he is very much ‘Ralph’s man’ currently. Perhaps this is down to his flexibility, as he has played as a winger, an attacking midfielder, and a second striker in the seven league games so far this season. His inclusion is one that frustrates fans as he is seen as a safe option in an area of the pitch where fans want to see players that take risks and get them off their seat. When he plays in the wide areas he struggles as he lacks pace, but he is one of the better attacking players in terms of work-rate and defensive capabilities (3.3 tackles+interceptions per 90 = 1st; 5.4 successful pressures per 90 = 2nd) that the club have. If Southampton fans had not seen this very scenario play out so many times before, it would be almost beyond belief that the Norwegian lasted 79 minutes at Villa Park, such was his ineffectiveness. With zero goal contributions this season, he must surely find his place now under threat. The beauty of Hasenhüttl’s football is that it has rarely been safe. This has brought some drubbings – not least two 9-0 defeats – but also some great results and performances. His persistence with Elyounnoussi seems in some ways to go against the very principles that he has built his managerial career on.
With the international break, Hasenhüttl has had plenty of time to ponder his side’s start to the campaign and plan for the upcoming six weeks of domestic football before the season is halted for the World Cup. It feels very much that the team is one that is in a period of transition and with Hasenhüttl’s now constant change of approach they are a side that lacks an identity.
Hasenhüttl must decide what he wants his Southampton side to be. Are they the mid-block team that allow their opponents to have possession in their own half that we have seen so far in 2022-23, or are they the gegenpressing machine that previously Hasenhüttl was so reluctant to deviate from? The first question the Austrian coach needs to answer is who he will trust to provide the creative spark in those key attacking areas, as currently their attacking play feels as though it completely lacks cohesion, and the attacking patterns of play just simply are not there.
Currently, Hasenhüttl very much divides the Southampton fanbase. The manner of the defeat against Aston Villa is likely to have turned some of those that have supported the Saints boss thus far, to considering if their beloved side would be better off with someone else at the helm.
Pressure feels as though it is growing. If Hasenhüttl is to find his job under threat, is it not better to die on the gegenpressing hill on which his football philosophy lies, rather than conforming to a more passive style of play that he does not believe in?
