Nobody wants a must-win game when Manchester City are next up but three consecutive losses has left Ralph Hasenhüttl clinging onto his job at Southampton.
Southampton slumped to their third consecutive Premier League defeat last Saturday, losing 2-1 to Everton at St Mary’s. Since beating Chelsea on 30th August, the Saints have had a run of three fixtures in which they should have been targeting three points against each of their opponents. Instead they lost all three, scoring just once in the process.
Wolves and Aston Villa have both been struggling at the beginning of this season, whilst Everton are a side who have enjoyed a decent run recently, but ultimately are still very beatable. These three defeats could be particularly damaging given that next week Southampton face the abominable task of travelling to Manchester City and trying to keep Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, et al. at bay.
With Premier League managers currently dropping like the proverbial fly, it does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that a heavy defeat in Manchester next weekend could see many a fan get their wish and Ralph Hasenhüttl relieved of his managerial duties. Whilst this could appear knee-jerk should it come in the fallout of a defeat to arguably the best team in world football, it would be the result of a concerning run of form.
Hasenhuttl’s side have won just two of their eight league games so far this season, scoring just eight and conceding 13 in that time. It leaves the club just one point above the relegation zone and, having invested £50 million in the squad in the summer, it is difficult to imagine the relatively new Southampton owners are satisfied with what they have seen.
One cause for optimism is the return of Roméo Lavia to training. The 18 year-old signed from Manchester City in the summer had taken to Premier League football better than even the most optimistic fan could have envisaged. The Belgian was playing as a lone pivot, marshalling the midfield and protecting his defenders, He was performing this role so effectively that he was the subject of a remarkable £50 million bid from Chelsea in the days that followed Southampton’s victory over the Stamford Bridge club. This despite the fact that Southampton themselves had signed Lavia just a matter of weeks earlier.
Lavia injured his hamstring in that 2-1 victory over Chelsea, perhaps due in part to the rigours of Premier League football; having previously been accustomed to playing youth football. The common denominator in the subsequent three defeats has been the absence of Lavia in the squad. He has only played five league games for his new club and yet his importance to the side cannot be overstated. He is already vital to the way that Southampton play and his absence has been sorely felt alongside the far more experienced James Ward-Prowse in the Saints’ engine room.
Southampton took the lead early in the second half on Saturday, with Joe Aribo netting his second of the season. However, just five minutes later they found themselves 2-1 down; a score they would prove unable to overturn. Whilst the nature of the defeat was once again very disappointing, Southampton did at least have plenty of chances to score which is in stark contrast to their previous defeat at Villa Park.
It was a much changed starting lineup from Hasenhüttl, who had the best part of a fortnight to perform a full postmortem on the dismal performance in the 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa thanks to the international break. The Austrian coach made the decision to revert to his favoured 4222 system and made six changes from the side that started the previous fixture. Duje Ćaleta-Car, Juan Larios, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Stuart Armstrong, Joe Aribo, and Sékou Mara all came in, with Mohammed Salisu, Romain Perraud, Ibrahima Diallo, Moussa Djenepo, Moi Elyounoussi, and Adam Armstrong all making way.
This change in approach, personnel, and shape meant that Southampton had two number sixes and two number 10s. Everton lined up in a 433 formation; the system Frank Lampard has favoured since bringing in the profile of players he wanted in the summer. This system meant Everton outnumbered their opponents in the centre of the pitch. With Ward-Prowse and Maitland-Niles facing up against the industrious trio of Idrissa Gana Gueye, Amadou Onana, and Alex Iwobi, it was in the midfield that the game was lost by Southampton.
Southampton did have slightly more possession than Everton (55%) but defensively the Toffees were far more effective. Everton managed five more tackles than Southampton, made 12 more interceptions, and won six more aerial duels. That being said, one statistic that shows how the Everton side, and in particular the midfield, made it a very difficult afternoon for Southampton is a comparison between the number of pressures made by Everton’s midfield three when compared with Southampton’s midfield double-pivot.
According to FBref, Ward-Prowse applied 12 pressures on an Everton player who was receiving, carrying, or releasing the ball. Ward-Prowse’s partner, Maitland-Niles, made 13. In comparison, Onana made 12 pressures for Everton, Gueye made 19, and Iwobi made even more with 21. This means that, in total, Everton made their numerical advantage count in the centre of midfield by applying 27 more pressures than Southampton’s duo. In contrast to his teammates, the absent Lavia has the highest percentage of successful pressures per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, winning back possession of the ball 47.6% of the times that he presses an opposing player.
The Southampton side were not making a conscious effort to be passive and not to press their opponents, they just did it higher up the pitch. Between the two players occupying the number 10 roles in Hasenhüttl’s system, Stuart Armstrong and Aribo, they applied 53 pressures. The problem was that once this press had been beaten it left Southampton’s midfield exposed and the game effectively bypassed Ward-Prowse and Maitland-Niles defensively. The midfield was far too easy for Everton to play through in order to attack the backline.
Whilst the profile of the Everton midfield was very different to that of Southampton, when these two differing systems faced-off at St Mary’s another factor that allowed Everton to dominate this area was the ability of their midfield trio to progressively carry the ball forward. Ward-Prowse and Maitland-Niles – both of whom are admittedly not progressive dribblers – managed to progressively carry the ball a combined total of 86 yards. Of this total distance, Maitland-Niles contributed just 14 of these yards. On the other hand, Everton’s midfield three progressively carried a distance of 231 yards; Gueye being the most effective carrier out of either side’s central midfield (97).
Yet, despite the midfield battle being lost to their opponents, Southampton had the slight majority of possession and they also recorded an xG of 2.3 compared to Everton’s 1.7. Therefore, unlike against Aston Villa where Saints managed one shot on target, Southampton had chances. The problem they have is that they have no one clinical enough to take advantage of these chances.
The south coast club had 22 shots, with seven of these on target. Ćaleta-Car, Adam Armstrong, and Adams were all guilty of squandering very good chances and on another day we may have been picking apart a Southampton victory. However, in a league of the most minuscule of margins, you cannot waste chances while being so porous at the other end. In a run stretching back to last season, Southampton have failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 consecutive league matches.
The lack of goals at one end, whilst conceding regularly at the other, must be addressed. The question is whether Hasenhüttl will be given much more time to find the solutions.
