Talent identification and development will always be an integral part of football. For clubs “lucky” enough to have access to a state’s cash reserves or the profits of a wealthy oil baron, harvesting talented players is a relatively easy task, you just sign the best players in the best leagues and hope for the best. Of course, such an approach to squad building is not always a success, but for those clubs that are less cash-rich, it ceases to even be an option. Instead, clubs that are striving for long-term, sustainable success are required to shop smart in an increasingly expensive global market.
The “Red Bull Model” is often lauded as the paragon of smart recruitment, and rightly so given their exemplary record of unearthing gems from underrated leagues before selling them on for a healthy profit. In the last four seasons alone, Red Bull Salzburg have made a profit of £113m from the sales of just six players, and this conveyor belt of talent is showing no signs of stopping. Unfortunately, for clubs based in the United Kingdom, Brexit has made it incredibly difficult to sign young prospects from Europe, prompting English clubs to turn their attention to regions that the U.K.’s new points-based system favours, like South America. We have already seen Brighton explore this market, most recently in Paraguay with Libertad’s promising young striker, Julio Enciso, but also with Moisés Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister who have both hit the ground running in 2022-23.
This series, prompted by the benefits involved in mid-level Premier League clubs recruiting undervalued non-E.U. players, will use data to highlight some of the continent’s most exciting talents who look ready to take the next step toward stardom. In Issue #1 we highlighted Carlos Alcaraz, Alan Varela, Artur, and Vicente Pizarro as future stars, and in Issue #2 it was Exequiel Zeballos, Martín Ojeda, Matheuzinho, and Thiago Borbas that were put under the microscope. If those names are new to you then make sure to check out the first two issues, but for now, read on to find out about another four talented youngsters, including an Argentinian goalscorer with an interesting agent…
Welington (21), São Paulo FC
This current São Paulo side is an interesting one for a number of reasons, not least because they are now managed by the legendary goalkeeper, Rogério Ceni, who is best known for having scored 131 goals in his 25-year-long career. Having made 1,200 appearances for “O Clube da Fé”, Rogério Ceni has played with a whole host of talented players, including Edmílson, Júlio Baptista, Kaká, and Casemiro. Now, the Brazilian shot-stopper is overseeing the next wave of talent to emerge from their ranks, chief among whom is 21-year-old left-wing-back, Welington.
In a game where three-at-the-back systems are becoming increasingly popular, gaining first-team experience as a wing-back early in your career can only be a good thing. As the Brazilian Série A approached its finale, Welington battled for minutes with a 33-year-old Reinaldo, but the young Brazilian wing-back caught the eye every time he played in 2022. When assessing any young player, the first thing you look for is scalability – a player’s ability to maintain a similar level of impact at a higher level. This is far from an exact science, but there are certain skills and traits that scale better than others, like off-ball movement, high-level passing, and the ability to execute pressing structures. Welington has already shown aptitude in all of these areas so far in his career, and his potential alone should land him on the radar of many European clubs.
Perhaps the most eye-catching area of Welington’s game is what he can do in the final third, most notably his ability to provide for his teammates, recording six Brasileirão assists in 2022, including two delightful crosses for ex-West Ham striker, Jonathan Calleri. This productivity can be broken down into three elements – technique, vision, and movement – and this is where scalability comes into play. One thing that is clear when watching the young Brazilian is that he is still very raw; for every few good crosses, there is a cross that goes out for a throw-in or a goal-kick, and the data supports this. Welington was the most productive defender in the league when in terms of assists per 90 (0.29), thanks in part to the number of crosses he is putting into the box each game (4.4 per 90; 93rd percentile), despite having a below-average crossing accuracy (33.7%; 39th percentile).
He compensates for this inconsistent delivery through intelligent movement and his ability to manipulate space out wide, which affords him so many crossing opportunities that goals become something of an inevitability; “if at first, you don’t succeed” etc. The point here is that the ability to read the game, find pockets of space, and spot the runs of his teammates is a transferable skill that could see him flourish at a higher level in the right set-up, assuming he can develop his technique on the training ground. Interestingly, Welington’s playmaking ability is equally impressive from deep, where his execution is actually much improved, ranking in the 92nd percentile for progressive passing accuracy (83.2%). Having the ability to supply both the assist and the pre-assist is something not many full-backs possess, and to showcase this ability at such a young age is impressive.
Another facet of Welington’s game that Rogério Ceni has clearly sought to make the most of is his exceptional ball-carrying ability, both out wide and through the half-spaces. Athleticism is something of a prerequisite for a modern-day wing-back, as you need the pace to beat your man and then track back in recovery, whilst ideally having the stamina to keep it up for a full 90 minutes. Thankfully for São Paulo fans, Welington boasts lightning speed and remarkable endurance; at the back end of the season, he played 253 minutes of football in a week as his side faced off against Atlético Mineiro, Fluminense, and Internacional.
To play that much football in such a short space of time against three sides that finished above you in the league is impressive in its own right, but to maintain those energy levels at the tail end of a season in which you have averaged 1.7 accelerations (98th percentile), 5.1 dribble attempts (93rd percentile), and 3.2 progressive runs (95th percentile) per 90 is phenomenal. Welington’s dribble success rate of 60.6% (66th percentile) could do with some polishing if it is going to be such an integral part of his game, though he prefers to knock the ball beyond his opposite number and force them into a foot race anyway, and why wouldn’t you if you were blessed with such speed.
The one area that Welington will undoubtedly need to work on if he is going to attract interest from a top European club is his defending, where there is certainly a lot to be desired. He does have some utility as a front-footed defender, as one of his biggest strengths is forcing high turnovers by counter-pressing in the opposition half (2.5 ball recoveries in the opposition half per 90), but when he is caught in a 1-on-1 duel he is beaten almost half the time (54.8%; 15th percentile).
This comes back to the importance of the system though, and how much defensive responsibility your wing-back actually has. Filip Kostić, Europe’s most dangerous wing-back in 2021-22, was engaged in the same number of defensive duels per 90 as Welington (5.5; 20th percentile) and had a similar success rate in them (56%), but this did not matter because a) his offensive impact absolved him of any real defensive responsibility, and b) he had one of Europe’s most promising centre-backs in Evan N’Dicka alongside him. Welington is by no means the finished article, but if he were to be put in a system that brings the best out of him under a coach that is committed to his development, then it could turn out to be a very smart investment. Brighton, anyone?
Mateo Retegui (23), Tigres (on loan from Boca Juniors)
Now, about that striker with an interesting agent. Mateo Retegui has been in inspired form in 2022, finishing the season as the top scorer in the Argentine Primera División, scoring 19 (0.77 per 90) goals for 7th-placed Tigre. Those 19 goals also saw the 23-year-old Argentinian finish near the top of the combined goals and assists rankings alongside another exciting talent, Godoy Cruz’s Martín Ojeda, whom we featured in Part Two of this series back in September.
Retegui’s form obviously has far more to do with his talent than his agent, but it can’t do a striker any harm to be represented by Francesco Totti, can it? Much like his agent, Retegui has proven that he has a real eye for goal and, perhaps more than any player to have featured in this series so far, he is an example of the archetypal number nine that is happiest getting in the box and firing shots off at an impressive rate. This style of play is reflected in his underlying performance data, with Retegui ranking in the 87th percentile for touches in the opposition box (3.8 per 90) when compared to the league’s forwards, accounting for 37.6% of the 10 passes he received on average each match. When in the box, Retegui poses a real threat to the opposition defence, averaging 3.2 shots per 90 (2nd only to ex-River Plate and now Manchester City striker, Julián Álvarez) and amassing the highest xG tally in the league (0.61 per 90). The fact that 17 of Retegeui’s 19 league goals in 2022 were scored in the box, five of which were headers and another 5 penalties, confirms it is fair to label him a poacher.
The flip side of this is this is that Retegui could be characterised as one-dimensional, “penalty box striker” that is not involved much in the wider game, a conclusion that is supported by the data; Retegui received 10 passes per game (40th percentile) and engaged in just 10.5 offensive duels (58th percentile). Generally speaking, this notion is confirmed by the eye test too, with Retegui preferring to receive the ball deep in the final third before quickly firing off an instinctive finish, occasionally using his strength to receive with his back to the goal, holding the ball up and rolling the last man. This is not to say that he doesn’t make any runs in behind, and a couple of his goals have come from counterattacks where his movement in central areas has been good, but in a more possession-dominant team, it is unlikely that his movement would help to drag defenders out of position. Whilst not a huge deterrent, it certainly shortens the list of potential suitors in a market where more complete strikers have tended to be the order of the day.
Using Álvarez’s 2021 season as a point of comparison helps to flag up a few more of Retegui’s limitations, namely his inferior ball-carrying ability and comparative lack of creativity. Despite putting up similar finishing numbers in the same league, it was Álvarez who caught the attention of European scouts and eventually earned himself a big-money move to one of the continent’s premier clubs. Looking at their respective performance metrics, it is clear that the World Cup-winning striker is a far more rounded and involved attacker, outperforming Retegui in expected assists per 90; passes to the penalty area; received passes; touches in the box; progressive runs; dribble attempts, and dribble success. Ultimately, an attacker with as diverse a skillset as Álvarez will always be the more enticing option as their versatility means they can be deployed in a multitude of positions and tactical set-ups, making them less predictable in attack, unlike Retegui’s clear but limited strengths.
This should not detract from the fact that 2022 was an impressive breakout season for Retegui, and the real question now is what is next for the 23-year-old forward. Given that Boca Juniors’ top goalscorer, a 32-year-old Dario Benedetto, scored just 12 league goals last season, it would have been fair to assume that Retegui would return to his parent club and link up with the league’s assist leader, Sebastián Villa (14). Boca’s Vice President, Juan Román Riquelme, has chosen to decline the option to recall the Argentinian striker though, preferring instead to honour the two-year loan agreement with Tigre. With this in mind, it seems likely that Retegui will once again be plying his trade on loan in Argentina in 2023, unless Boca receive a lucrative offer for his services this January; there are plenty of sides in Europe that could do with recruiting a clinical goalscorer ahead of the second half of the season, so this is not entirely unlikely.
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